I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy.
My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers.
In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world.
Click to watch my video.
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and today I want to talk about active management; and what’s the role of that, what’s the place in someone’s portfolio; and frankly can “timing” be done, and done successfully?
Let me just tell you that in a previous life, a different company that I was involved in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, we were known as the market timing firm. And we were extremely successful at that. And so, I know first-hand that market timing, with the right players and in the right environment, can be very successful. However, most people cannot market time on their own. And market timing, traditionally is meant to be when to go in and out of the market, whether it’s short term; meaning a day or two or a week or even longer term; month, quarter or year; going between stocks and bonds and cash, etc. whether that’s with mutual funds, etc. That’s kind of a traditional discussion of market timing. You know, I think that those that can successfully market time are very small. But I do believe it can be done it’s just very, very difficult. And it is extremely difficult for an individual investor to do it on their own, on their own portfolio. I use an example, whenever I need some legal work done, if I try to do it myself, I’m not going to be successful. Does that mean that legal work is not successful? No. I have to go to a lawyer, someone who is trained and is unemotional about the particular problem or issue that I might have. But, as Mark Twain said, “A lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client.” Well, what he’s really saying is a lawyer should not represent himself. So it’s very difficult when you’re emotional about an issue to handle it on your own. That’s why I think a professional adviser makes sense even if that person is doing some market timing.
I do allocations within sectors. And I’m usually almost always invested but I’m trying to weight, kind of tilt, one sector over another; whether it’s large cap, small cap, or mid-cap. What I don’t do is go 100% stock one day and 100% cash the next day, or even week by week. I think that that is a skill that is extremely hard to do and a lot of times it just isn’t very successful. I’m not sure that the environment today is the same environment that it was ten and twenty years ago.
Unfortunately, the statistics out there show that investors who try to time the market on their own are 20% less successful than if they had just done a “buy-and-hold.” (Source: Barry Mendelson, CIMA, CMC EResearch, “Dangers of Market Timing,” 4/29/2008.) And once investors become active, this study that I just read a week or two ago, says that 40% admit that they’re probably too active and that they’ve hurt themselves. (Source: Helen Modly, CFP, CWPA, Focus Wealth Management, Ltd., “How the Wealthy Avoid Behavioral Bias: 7 Strategies,” 2/13/2012.) So, I do, … I’m kind of giving a “waffle-y” answer here; I do believe it’s possible, it is extremely difficult. I believe that a better solution is probably to be well diversified and to tilt particular sectors one way or the other and be very well diversified. I do work with some good managers that I’m very pleased with their particular approach and I’d be happy to talk with you about them and the way that they manage money, not in a market timing situation but in a good active management situation where it’s deciding what are the “tilts” and the “weights” of that particular diversification.
Hopefully this video made sense and clarified things a little bit; either way, give me a call if you’d like to talk about it. I just absolutely love hearing from you and hearing from your friends. So pass it on to someone if you think that they could have some value from this video. 303-747-6455, my name is Mike Brady, here in Boulder, Colorado. You have a wonderful, wonderful week. Thanks! Bye, bye.
Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic?
Watch my video to find out.
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold.
2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly, when we look back at year upon year we can always say that it’s very volatile. I’m going to show you a graph in a minute or two that actually shows, we kind of forget about it, but many years have large declines intra-year. So 2011, (I’m going to throw this box up there); this is kind of a style box from value, blend, growth, and large, and mid, and small cap.* And by the way, I’ve got lots of disclosures at the end of this video so I highly encourage you to read those disclosures about the unmanaged stock indexes. So what you’ll see is, in general, the U.S. market was up a couple of percent to down five or six percent, but it was a wild ride the way we got there.
The first four, four and a half months of the year were up starting in May and June, we saw some weakness and then August and September were really quite brutal. Just huge, you know, hundred point swings in the DOW every other day and it was really quite painful and there was a huge focus on the downgrade of the U.S. government by S & P and a real focus on the U.S. federal debt. And, you know, 2011, one of the surprises was how well bonds did. I know I’m very surprised. And Bill Gross, who runs one of the largest funds out there, particularly bond focused funds, he admitted half way through the year, well maybe three quarters of the year, that he guessed it wrong. So, I think that how well the bonds did in 2011 is going to be the big surprise. But that’s why we remain diversified. Because my experience has shown, in twenty-one years, that the thing that you love the most sometimes you’re just darn wrong about! And so the thing that you hate the most, sometimes you’re wrong about that as well. So it’s really looking at the percentages, maybe weighting one over the other and changing that allocation throughout the year.
So you’re probably wondering about 2012. Right here in my hands I’ve got “15 Experts Predict 2012,” a little article. And we’re talking big names, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, and you know, kind of every big name that you can think of out there. And frankly, one article says that China is the best thing in the world, then the next one says China’s going to be a problem. One says that the U.S. is going to have great growth and the next one says it’s going to have poor growth. One saying bonds are good, one bad, and really the answer is always unclear, this year is no different.
I do believe we’re going to continue to have volatility, and one thing that I’m going to do is meet with clients and talk about whether or not some strategies need to be implemented to take advantage of that. But I am optimistic about 2012. I’m going to throw up a chart here; we’re going to see that the percentage of current assets that are in cash and equivalents has increased. And from a corporation point of view, that makes a lot of sense. I mean that when there’s uncertainty, you’re not sure how many widgets you’re going to be able to sell or how many services you’ll be able to provide, you want the best balance sheet that you can have. And I think the best recipients, when that cash gets converted back into research and development, gets back into the economy, I think that mid and small cap companies are going to be the ones that are kind of the first beneficiaries of that.
2012, I feel will be event driven, just like 2011 will. [sic.] We’re going to hear lots of stuff from Europe, and we’re going to hear a lot about the debt, and of course this is an election year so we’re going to hear all about, all about the election year politics. But I think we’re also going to hear about China. That’s going to come in here because it’s had a huge growth. It’s been one of the largest, kind of emerging into the developing markets, but it’s faltering. And this could be the year where it kind of teeter-totters to the bad side. So that’s something that I’m going to really watch out for.
I’m going to throw up here on the chart, that as it relates to volatility, here’s a chart that, we kind of forget about it but most years have some kind of volatility. The bottom number is entry year, kind of decline, and that does not mean that the year ended. The black number is actually what the year ended. So although there might have been a double digit decline throughout the year and everyone kind of freaks out, you know, it’s not over till it’s over. I’m here in Boulder and we got our Denver Broncos and between the fourth quarter and overtime, you know, the game’s not over till the whistle blows. And so throughout the year if we have some huge declines we have to assess at that time, “hey, wait a second, is this going to continue, or is this just one of those throughout the year declines that we still feel firm in our analysis that the market may be under-valued?”
Speaking of the market being under-valued, I don’t hold much weight with forward price to earnings ratios, but I do like, not the forward, but the actual price to earnings ratio is low right now. Particularly in comparison to like the twenty year average and what it’s historically been. So I’m kind of in the Warren Buffett camp that believes that this is a market that is under-valued; that the economy is actually getting better, it might not feel that [sic.], particularly if you’re unemployed. I mean we have an unemployment problem, and we have a housing problem. But you know, I’m kind of in that camp.
You know I could sit here and go on and on and on. But I think that I’ve gotten my feelings out to you that in general, I’m optimistic about 2012. I think that small and mid-cap are probably kind of the styles that deserve closer attention. But you’ve got to, of course, do what’s consistent with what your risk levels are, and your particular goals. And work with your financial advisor and hopefully that financial advisor is me, but if not, of course, everything I say here today is kind of general, so you can get a general feel for how I’m thinking.
That’s it for 2012.
Mike Brady, Generosity Wealth Management; I do have these videos on a weekly, sometimes every other week, depending on how busy I kind of get and if I’m able to get it out in time.
I am a full service wealth management firm, here in Boulder, although I have a number of clients in many different states. I named it Generosity Wealth Management because I truly believe that people are trying to make the world a better place and that includes making things better for themselves so that they are not a burden upon others in their own retirement. That they make things better for their family – so that they can pass money on to their family or just provide for them; whether it’s a college education; whether or not it’s just to make their life a little bit easier. But also to make their community a better place- both local and global community. And so there’s some “generosity” that each of us have inside us. And that’s many of the thoughts that went into my company name of Generosity Wealth Management.
303.747.6455
www.generositywealth.com
And please, stay tuned, I will have another video and another newsletter before you know it. You have a wonderful, wonderful day- bye bye.
* Small Cap- refers to stocks with a relatively small market capitalization. The definition of small cap can vary among brokers, but generally it is a company with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.
Mid Cap- refers to a company with a market capitalization between $2 and $10 billion, which is calculated by multiplying the number of a company’s shares outstanding by its stock price. Mid cap is an abbreviation for the term “middle capitalization”.
Large Cap- A term used by the investment community to refer to companies with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion. Large cap is an abbreviation of the term “large market capitalization”. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of a company’s shares outstanding by its stock price per share.
Keep in mind that the dollar amounts used for the classifications “large cap”, mid cap”, or “small cap” are only approximations that change over time. Among market participants, their exact definitions can vary.
Definitions courtesy of www.investopedia.com and reflect a general rather than specific understanding of these industry terms, unless otherwise stated.
It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition.
I talk about this in my video.
I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions.
Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more!
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And I am really pleased to be talking with you today and there are a couple of things I want to talk about today.
And the first one is volatility. On Wednesday, we had a DOW that was over 400 points up, and this is following the Thanksgiving week where the market was sharply down. (Low volume but still sharply down.) And it’s my belief that this type of volatility, and not just in the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of volatility in the last year or so, I believe it is going to continue going forward. And if that is true, it’s also my belief that some active management should be considered for client’s portfolio. That’s something that I’m going to be talking with my clients about in the coming months. That’s also something I’m going to be talking about in these videos in the coming months, that it may have a place in a volatile environment- how can we best position our portfolio to take advantage of that particular market condition? So, if you’re not one of my clients, I recommend you give me a call so that we can talk about it, kind of one on one, and your personal situation.
And the second thing I’m thinking about this week is well, healthcare costs; and specifically as it relates to retirement.
I heard a statistic yesterday that is very interesting. The Fortune 100, 91 out of the Fortune 100, in 1985, had traditional pension plans. Today, the Fortune 100, only 19 of them have traditional pension plans. If you’re a GE employee, starting today, you know, day one of your employment, you are not offered their traditional pension plan. And that is, GE is one of the largest companies, with the largest pension plans. So, I think this is a trend that is going to continue going forward. And what this tells us is that you’ve got to take control of your saving and investing for your own retirement. Don’t assume that someone else, either some big corporation or even Social Security is going to handle it. You’ve got to take control of it!
And one of the largest expenses you’re going to have in retirement are your health care costs. And fifty-three per cent of individuals recently polled couldn’t even estimate what those health care costs are. We’re talking Medicare A, and B, and D, and your estimated premium payments, and your estimated out of pocket expenses. These are some expenses that you’re going to have to, you know, pay in your retirement. So the question is, in your life expectancy, what are they going to be, what kind of a lump sum, under certain assumptions, will you need to have in retirement? And of course the question is- do you have that set aside? You may, you may not, but let’s try to quantify that on a piece of paper.
I have some wonderful software that I’m going to be working with clients with in the next couple of months to try to put that number down on a piece of paper so that we can say, “Boom! This amount of money is what, under these assumptions, we’re going to need for the healthcare costs for the rest of your life.” So the question is, have you done that for yourself? Maybe you have. If you haven’t, give me a call I can try to help you answer that question. It’s a hard number to really put down, things are always in motion, but you know what, let’s try to estimate as best we can. An estimate is better than not having any idea at all. And it is something we can revise as the years go forward.
So anyway, that’s kind of what’s on my mind this week. Mike Brady, Generosity Wealth Management, 303.747.6455, here in Boulder, Colorado. A comprehensive, a full service wealth management firm; I love my clients, I have a great passion to treat my clients like members of my family, and if you’re not my client, I’d love to talk to you about whether it makes sense if what I do is right for you, or if I’m the right person to help you with that. So, anyway, you have a wonderful week and we’ll talk to you later bye bye now.
Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not.
As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change.
The question is: what does this mean for your investments?
1. I continue to caution against all things Europe
2. Constantly evaluate the allocation of your investments to ensure they’re meeting your risk levels
3. Consider more active management in the coming year. Talk to me about what this might mean.
* Humility — the market doesn’t care what you think
* Knowledge — If you do action A, is B the outcome?
I hope you click on my video and watch–I try to make it the best 3 to 5 minutes of your week. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but worthwhile nonetheless.
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and this week I’m going to talk about two or three different things, one is conviction, the second is humility and another is just knowing what… oh, the answers to everything, which I guess kind of gets down to humility as well.
I last did a video about a week and a half ago and at that time I said “Gosh, I hope you’re not hearing from me every day”, that means things have calmed down just a little bit. And what has happened in the last week and a half is we’ve had, mainly, some one percent days plus or minus. Which in an environment where it is three to five percent in a day, that actually seems quite calm. But we’d have one percent, one percent, one percent, and then a big three percent drop. What’s very interesting is that although that three percent drop might just give away what you’ve gained over the last three days it seems so dramatic, so huge, when in fact if had been less one percent, less one percent, a slow dribble, it’s not quite as shocking to the system.
And this kind of gets down to a little bit of humility and kind of knowing everything. The market is a very complicated organism, OK? And the only people who understand exactly what is going to happen, there are some people like that, they’re called analysts and journalists, OK? And it is my belief that, many different factors go into what happens on a given day, a given week, a given month, into the particular market.
Let me just step back for a minute and talk about my philosophy in general; about the chaos theory. Things are very complicated- and sometimes things just happen. If A happens B does not necessarily happen. And sometimes B happens and there are a number of things that lined up for B to happen. The market is no different.
In an economy, or a country, let’s just say, in order for it to go from a developing country to a developed country, there are a lot of things that have to happen; you have to have an educated work force, you’ve got to have good governance, and confidence in the judicial system, you’ve got to have an economic system that is free and fair… There’s a number of different things that have to happen in order for a country to really move forward. And if one or two of them are happening, but not all the others, then you’re really not hitting all the cylinders. And so, it kind of gets to my belief in investing that you’ve got to have a conviction.
What do you believe in? Do you believe that the United States is what your bet is long term; whether it’s one year, five years, ten, thirty years. If not, you know, then I might question whether all of my discussions about the stock market are really for you. And if that’s the case we can talk about it, and give me a call; because there might be other non-equity, non-U.S. things that you should gravitate towards. What do you believe in? If you believe in nothing you’re going to be pulled one way or the other and all of these journalists who give you exact answers, which is what we wish that we would have about why a certain event happens. You’re going to be persuaded by one over the other, left and right, etc.
That boils down to my last topic- which is really humility. We have to understand that sometimes things just happen and what we believe is going to happen doesn’t always turn out the way we want it.
You know, I still have a conviction that this a market that I want to participate in but I’m still diversified. I still have some hedging positions. And the last three or four weeks, I have to absolutely admit it is much more drastic that what I had, you know, forecast four weeks ago. But that being said, the conviction is the same but I also have to remember that the market doesn’t really care what Mike Brady thinks; doesn’t care what Generosity Wealth Management thinks; doesn’t really care what you think. So therefore, we have to continue to change our beliefs. And so I have made some changes in the last three or four weeks. I’ve shared them with you over the video as things have progressed. But we also have to have conviction, but we also have to have some humility and also understand that sometimes things, and particularly on some of these days just knee-jerk happens. And so we have to kind of help smooth those things out, try to keep them out of our mind and not let them completely throw us off base.
I’m recording this on a Friday morning, Bernanke just spoke a little while ago and the market knee-jerked down then knee-jerked back up. And so, you know, those things are going to happen, it’s just part of it and we have to stay true to what we believe.
Going forward, I mentioned this at a previous video, that I’m going to have dynamic asset allocation as one of my offerings for my clients and my management system because I do believe that there’s a way that we can keep to our conviction, stay invested most of the time and strategically choose one sector over another. And it’s something that I’m very excited about. It’s something I’ve been working on for a very long time and I’m just about to kind of, offer it to all of my clients.
Anyway, Mike Brady, Generosity Wealth Management, 303.747.6455.
Eeeh, I’m supposed to smile! My mom tells me that I don’t smile enough in these videos but you know, I take this stuff very seriously, and so maybe that seriousness comes out in my lack of smiling here. But anyway, I hope you have a wonderful weekend and we’ll talk to you later bye bye.
