I remember the 1998 Russian crisis well. It was near the end of the summer, and threatened to put a real damper on an otherwise excellent stock market year. The “Moscow meltdown” bled over the S&P 500, which plunged 20%. There are reasons 1998 and today are different Tough sanction in place have somewhat isolated Western investors Russia has a war chest of $416 billion in currency reserves today, versus very little in 1998 Russia’s currency is free floating, and not pegged to the US Dollar like in 1998. External shocks can be absorbed by the currency markets. There are ... Read More
When you hear 9 – 10% in the stock market, you must remember that those returns contain every single type of market environment. Warren Buffet is one of the most successful investors ever, and he still has declines at some point. But, he has the right behaviors ingrained in him to “be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”. No one likes declines, but they are part of a full market cycle. When constructing a portfolio for a client, I always try to understand the risk tolerance for them, understanding that unless you’re 100% invested in ... Read More
One thing to watch out for is assuming the future will reflect the past. As a matter of fact, that whole “past performance is no guarantee of future result” is actually true. So, looking at history over the past 14 to 15 years, what would happen with your returns and volatility if you had invested for the year based on the best asset class for the prior year? Inquiring minds want to know. Therefore, you should watch my video. Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado. ... Read More
In my video today, I discuss the most recent January volatility in the stock markets. Does the worst January in the Dow since 2009 mean we need to change our strategy? Is there any change I recommend since my last video about 3 weeks ago? For the answer to these questions, listen to my 4 minute video. Read More
Twelve months ago, the 5 year return for the S&P would have covered 2008 – 2012, for a +1.66% annual return (including reinvested dividends). Today and one year later, because a bad year dropped off (2008) and is replaced by a good year (2013), the 5 year annualized return jumps up to +17.94%. Let’s look at another longer term statistic. A year ago, the 20 year annualized S&P 500 return was +8.22% a year vs. +8.50% a year for long term Treasuries. Makes the argument that you should put all your money in long term treasuries, right? I mean, the ... Read More
In my video today, I discuss what I’m hoping people don’t take away from 2013. Diversification? What that? For a full discussion of this, listen to my video. Transcript: Hi there, Michael Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado. Today, I want to talk to about the lessons of 2013. I know it is only mid-December but we’ve got 11 1/2 months and I think it’s close enough. More than anything, I want to talk about the lessons I’m hoping investors don’t take away from 2013. Before I get started, ... Read More
I think highly of Mark Mobius, and he makes a strong argument that emerging markets, while they’ve had some correction this year, is still a great place to invest. I happen to agree with him. It’s a great article, so be sure to click and read. Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold? Read More
The second quarter was a tough quarter, particularly at the end. Continued emphasis on government fiscal and monetary policies, both here and abroad, played havoc with bond, stock, and precious metal investors. It’s enough to make my hair turn white! Click on my video to get my thoughts on the past quarter (over-reaction) and the upcoming one. The year is not over! Hello, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado. I’m here for my second quarter review and my third quarter preview. I wish I could sit ... Read More
Nothing illustrates the point that the stock market doesn’t always reflect properly the underlying strength of an economy than the Venezuelan stock market. Scarce basic necessities, but a stock market up over 600%. Disconnect? Bubble? Probably a yes on both. For Full Article Read More
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes. But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues? I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts. Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs Transcript: Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado, and I am so pleased to talk with you this morning because we’re going to ... Read More
In October, 276 (75%) of the 366 markets showed monthly home value appreciation, and 228 (62%) of the 366 markets saw annual home value appreciation. Among the top 30 metros, 29 experienced monthly home value appreciation and 26 saw annual increases. This is a great sign, and fills me with optimism going forward. This is a good leading indicator for a sustained recovery. Click here for full Article Read More
Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May. The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”. Click to watch my video. TRANSCRIPT: Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk about what’s been going on in the markets; what’s ... Read More
John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers. This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe. I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video. Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months. Waving the White Flag Read More
I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy. My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers. In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world. Click to watch my video. TRANSCRIPT: Good morning! ... Read More
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the years, you know I believe in diversification and that one of the key ingredients to reaching your goals is to avoid catastrophic financial events. It’s important to note, as the table above illustrates, that not every investment has to make money. Limiting the size and number of the losses is important, and if avoiding any kind of loss at any time is your strategy, then you’ll always be on the sidelines. Risk management is key, and with that it is understanding some investments will do different things at different times, and not ... Read More
The first quarter of this year was very forgiving of any errors. We’ve had low volatility, generally positive economic reports, and even Europe has been less in the news than previously. Watch my video for my thoughts about the 1st quarter, and to find out if I’m still optimistic for the 2nd quarter and rest of the year. TRANSCRIPT: Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and I am here in Boulder Colorado, giving you my first quarter review and my second quarter preview. Absolutely wonderful first quarter; I’m going to throw some of the numbers up on ... Read More
The VIX (implied volatility index) has become very steep. The 7th contract (6 months out) is significantly higher than current implied volatility. What does this mean? It simply means that the market is pricing in risks of a correction later on in the year. Will it happen? Nothing is for certain, and if you have a long term diversified strategy (which hopefully you do) then this may just be a bump in the road Read More
It is common for there to be declines in the markets throughout the year, sometimes even double digits declines. This is to be expected. As an investor, one of the reasons we diversify and modify our allocations throughout the year is to try to minimize these fluctuations. What should you do when there is one of these expected declines? It depends on the situation at that time. Please click on the video below for a 4 minute discussion I give on this topic…… TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And I this ... Read More
It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition. I talk about this in my video. I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions. Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more! TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And I am ... Read More
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged, price-weighted index of 30 large capitalization stocks with dividends reinvested.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“S&P 500”) is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks, with dividends reinvested, and is often used as a proxy for the stock market.
The Nasdaq Composite is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, and are reported as price return without reinvestment of dividends.
Indexes are often used as a proxy for the stock market and cannot be invested in directly.