Posts Tagged ‘Volatility’
The Quarter in Review and Unintended Consequences
Posted on April 10th, 2013 by GWM
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.
But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?
I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.
Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs
Transcript:
Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More
Housing Prices Increase 4.7% Year Over Year
Posted on November 29th, 2012 by GWM
In October, 276 (75%) of the 366 markets showed monthly home value appreciation, and 228 (62%) of the 366 markets saw annual home value appreciation.
Among the top 30 metros, 29 experienced monthly home value appreciation and 26 saw annual increases.
This is a great sign, and fills me with optimism going forward. This is a good leading indicator for a sustained recovery.
Thoughts After a Tough Month
Posted on June 7th, 2012 by GWM
Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.
The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.
Click to watch my video.
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More
Waving the White Flag
Posted on May 15th, 2012 by GWM
John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.
This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.
I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.
Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.
Active Management – Market Timing?
Posted on April 24th, 2012 by GWM
I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy.
My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers.
In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world.… Read More
Defeating the Myth You Must Win on Every Trade
Posted on April 24th, 2012 by GWM
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the years, you know I believe in diversification and that one of the key ingredients to reaching your goals is to avoid catastrophic financial events.
It’s important to note, as the table above illustrates, that not every investment has to make money. Limiting the size and number of the losses is important, and if avoiding any kind of loss at any time is your strategy, then you’ll always be on the sidelines.
Risk management is key, and with… Read More
1st Quarter Review – Am I Still Optimistic for 2nd Quarter?
Posted on April 3rd, 2012 by GWM
The first quarter of this year was very forgiving of any errors. We’ve had low volatility, generally positive economic reports, and even Europe has been less in the news than previously.
Watch my video for my thoughts about the 1st quarter, and to find out if I’m still optimistic for the 2nd quarter and rest of the year.
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and I am here in Boulder Colorado, giving you my first quarter review and my second quarter preview.
Absolutely wonderful first quarter; I’m… Read More
Volatility in the Future
Posted on April 3rd, 2012 by GWM
The VIX (implied volatility index) has become very steep.
The 7th contract (6 months out) is significantly higher than current implied volatility.
What does this mean?
It simply means that the market is pricing in risks of a correction later on in the year.
Will it happen? Nothing is for certain, and if you have a long term diversified strategy (which hopefully you do) then this may just be a bump in the road
 … Read More
Intra-Year Declines
Posted on February 9th, 2012 by GWM
It is common for there to be declines in the markets throughout the year, sometimes even double digits declines.
This is to be expected.
As an investor, one of the reasons we diversify and modify our allocations throughout the year is to try to minimize these fluctuations.
What should you do when there is one of these expected declines? It depends on the situation at that time.
Please click on the video below for a 4 minute discussion I give on this topic……
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More
Volatility, Healthcare in Retirement
Posted on December 2nd, 2011 by GWM
It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition.
I talk about this in my video.
I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions.
Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more!
TRANSCRIPT:… Read More
Enough with Europe Already!
Posted on December 2nd, 2011 by GWM
Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not.
As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change.
The question is: what does this mean for your investments?
1. I continue to caution… Read More
Volatility Whipsaw
Posted on December 2nd, 2011 by GWM
As a complement to some of the volatility I discuss in my video, you can see in the chart to the left that what goes up one month can go down the next.
November was as bad as October was good.
A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis
Posted on October 28th, 2011 by GWM
By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
3rd Quarter Review / 4th Quarter Review
Posted on October 7th, 2011 by GWM
The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward.
A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other.
I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my… Read More
Europe – Echoes of Lehman
Posted on September 22nd, 2011 by GWM
The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.
Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.
We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.
Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN
 … Read More
Where Do We Go From Here?
Posted on September 16th, 2011 by GWM
I’ve had a relatively low position in stocks for clients for quite some time, but I’ve decided to lower it even further. I’m quite concerned about the correlation between Europe and the US, emotion/news driven volatility, and the uncertainty about what the Fed will do.
The risk just doesn’t warrant having as high a percentage as I’ve had.
On the flip side, profitability, efficiency, and cash balances have all been rising in the firms that comprise the S&P 500.
Is the return worth the risk?
Click on video to hear more.
TRANSCRIPT… Read More
Correlation as Long-Term Pandemic
Posted on September 16th, 2011 by GWM
S
tatistically speaking, when 2 or more things move together (both zig at the same time instead of some of them zagging) it’s called a correlation of 1.0. Over the past 30 years the correlation of the global markets have continued to increase towards 1.
This means that it’s a high probability that as Europe falls, it will impact our US markets. How much is the question, but our fates seem to be intertwined.
Conviction, Humility, Knowledge
Posted on August 26th, 2011 by GWM
This video covers a range of thoughts
* Conviction — what do you believe in?
* Humility — the market doesn’t care what you think
* Knowledge — If you do action A, is B the outcome?
I hope you click on my video and watch–I try to make it the best 3 to 5 minutes of your week. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but worthwhile nonetheless.
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and this week I’m going to talk about two or three different things, one… Read More
Current Market Thoughts
Posted on August 15th, 2011 by GWM
This video covers my current thinking
* There are some BEAR signs in the market I’m concerned about
* What does the market really care about (hint: recession and Europe)
* Why so much volatility last week?
* What should you (or me if I’m your adviser) be doing?
* Dynamic Asset Allocation management coming your way….
If this week is calmer than last week, then I may not do a video 2 or 3 times. For all our sakes, let’s hope that’s the case!
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More
Putting the Correction in Perspective
Posted on August 15th, 2011 by GWM
The volatility of the markets in the past 1.5 weeks has caused a lot of consternation in a lot of people. 400+ point moves every day is enough to get the juices flowing.
Historically, so far this correction is very mild and short. The above chart shows where are right now.
Does this mean we have further to decline?
That is always the big question. I put very little emphasis on reversion to a mean, so what has happened in the past and… Read More
The Quarter in Review and Unintended Consequences
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.
But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?
I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.
Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs
Transcript:
Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More
Housing Prices Increase 4.7% Year Over Year
In October, 276 (75%) of the 366 markets showed monthly home value appreciation, and 228 (62%) of the 366 markets saw annual home value appreciation.
Among the top 30 metros, 29 experienced monthly home value appreciation and 26 saw annual increases.
This is a great sign, and fills me with optimism going forward. This is a good leading indicator for a sustained recovery.
Thoughts After a Tough Month
Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.
The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.
Click to watch my video.
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More
Waving the White Flag
John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.
This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.
I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.
Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.
Active Management – Market Timing?
I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy.
My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers.
In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world.… Read More
Defeating the Myth You Must Win on Every Trade
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the years, you know I believe in diversification and that one of the key ingredients to reaching your goals is to avoid catastrophic financial events.
It’s important to note, as the table above illustrates, that not every investment has to make money. Limiting the size and number of the losses is important, and if avoiding any kind of loss at any time is your strategy, then you’ll always be on the sidelines.
Risk management is key, and with… Read More
1st Quarter Review – Am I Still Optimistic for 2nd Quarter?
The first quarter of this year was very forgiving of any errors. We’ve had low volatility, generally positive economic reports, and even Europe has been less in the news than previously.
Watch my video for my thoughts about the 1st quarter, and to find out if I’m still optimistic for the 2nd quarter and rest of the year.
TRANSCRIPT:
Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and I am here in Boulder Colorado, giving you my first quarter review and my second quarter preview.
Absolutely wonderful first quarter; I’m… Read More
Volatility in the Future
The VIX (implied volatility index) has become very steep.
The 7th contract (6 months out) is significantly higher than current implied volatility.
What does this mean?
It simply means that the market is pricing in risks of a correction later on in the year.
Will it happen? Nothing is for certain, and if you have a long term diversified strategy (which hopefully you do) then this may just be a bump in the road
 … Read More
Intra-Year Declines
It is common for there to be declines in the markets throughout the year, sometimes even double digits declines.
This is to be expected.
As an investor, one of the reasons we diversify and modify our allocations throughout the year is to try to minimize these fluctuations.
What should you do when there is one of these expected declines? It depends on the situation at that time.
Please click on the video below for a 4 minute discussion I give on this topic……
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More
Volatility, Healthcare in Retirement
It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition.
I talk about this in my video.
I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions.
Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more!
TRANSCRIPT:… Read More
Enough with Europe Already!
Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not.
As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change.
The question is: what does this mean for your investments?
1. I continue to caution… Read More
Volatility Whipsaw
As a complement to some of the volatility I discuss in my video, you can see in the chart to the left that what goes up one month can go down the next.
November was as bad as October was good.
A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis
By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
3rd Quarter Review / 4th Quarter Review
The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward.
A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other.
I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my… Read More
Europe – Echoes of Lehman
The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.
Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.
We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.
Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN
 … Read More
Where Do We Go From Here?
I’ve had a relatively low position in stocks for clients for quite some time, but I’ve decided to lower it even further. I’m quite concerned about the correlation between Europe and the US, emotion/news driven volatility, and the uncertainty about what the Fed will do.
The risk just doesn’t warrant having as high a percentage as I’ve had.
On the flip side, profitability, efficiency, and cash balances have all been rising in the firms that comprise the S&P 500.
Is the return worth the risk?
Click on video to hear more.
TRANSCRIPT… Read More
Correlation as Long-Term Pandemic
Statistically speaking, when 2 or more things move together (both zig at the same time instead of some of them zagging) it’s called a correlation of 1.0. Over the past 30 years the correlation of the global markets have continued to increase towards 1.
This means that it’s a high probability that as Europe falls, it will impact our US markets. How much is the question, but our fates seem to be intertwined.
Conviction, Humility, Knowledge
This video covers a range of thoughts
* Conviction — what do you believe in?
* Humility — the market doesn’t care what you think
* Knowledge — If you do action A, is B the outcome?
I hope you click on my video and watch–I try to make it the best 3 to 5 minutes of your week. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but worthwhile nonetheless.
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and this week I’m going to talk about two or three different things, one… Read More
Current Market Thoughts
This video covers my current thinking
* There are some BEAR signs in the market I’m concerned about
* What does the market really care about (hint: recession and Europe)
* Why so much volatility last week?
* What should you (or me if I’m your adviser) be doing?
* Dynamic Asset Allocation management coming your way….
If this week is calmer than last week, then I may not do a video 2 or 3 times. For all our sakes, let’s hope that’s the case!
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More
Putting the Correction in Perspective
The volatility of the markets in the past 1.5 weeks has caused a lot of consternation in a lot of people. 400+ point moves every day is enough to get the juices flowing.
Historically, so far this correction is very mild and short. The above chart shows where are right now.
Does this mean we have further to decline?
That is always the big question. I put very little emphasis on reversion to a mean, so what has happened in the past and… Read More
