Posts Tagged ‘Bonds’
China’s Inverted Curve
Posted on March 14th, 2012 by GWM
An inverted yield curve in the US has predicted 6 out of 7 worsening economic conditions in our country since 1970.
In China, we don’t have the same type of statistics because of their young open economy, but recently their yield curve has “inverted”.
I’m watching this and realizing it’s just another of many economic indicators out of China pointing towards a slower economy.
I really don’t want much (if any) exposure to the Chinese Stock Market.
This also has consequences to the whole… Read More
Italy’s Crashing Money Supply
Posted on December 2nd, 2011 by GWM
Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece.
Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money).
The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy.
Information, Communication, Back to Basics
Posted on October 28th, 2011 by GWM
What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below.
Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have.
Lastly, now is a great time… Read More
Europe – Echoes of Lehman
Posted on September 22nd, 2011 by GWM
The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.
Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.
We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.
Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN
 … Read More
Greek Bond Yields Surge
Posted on August 26th, 2011 by GWM
That might sound good, but what it really means is that the prices are plunging.
Stay away from Greece and watch Europe closely.
Greek Bond Yields Surge – Link
 … Read More
Who Has AAA Rating?
Posted on August 8th, 2011 by GWM
Municipals to be Downgraded?
Posted on August 8th, 2011 by GWM
One of the effects of a US Government downgrade is a municipal downgrade to follow.
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the past few years, you know I’ve advised you to watch your municipal holdings closely if you have any at all.
The free (relatively) capital market ultimately determines the cost municipals will have to pay to borrow money.
7,000 Muni Bonds at Risk of Automatic Downgrade
Posted on July 27th, 2011 by GWM
If the US Gov’t is downgraded (I argue when not if) then 7,000 municipal bonds will be automatically downgraed as well. At least according to Moody’s.
This really hurts retirees as they’re the largest part of this market.
US Government Bonds Downgraded from AAA to AA by German Rating Agency
Posted on June 15th, 2011 by GWM
One of the big drags on the economy in the coming years will be our fiscal deficits and budget problems.
I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).
This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More
Time to Buy Municipals?
Posted on April 20th, 2011 by GWM
I’
ve been negative on the finances of state and local governments for some time, and continue to believe it will get worse before it gets better.
This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.
He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.
I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.
 … Read More
Quarter End Review / Preview
Posted on April 6th, 2011 by GWM
This week’s video is my 1st Quarter Review and my 2nd Quarter Preview.
The first quarter was good (yeah!), and I list the items I’ll be watching and thinking about for the 2nd quarter.
A must see video (if I do say so myself).
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi Clients and Friends, Mike Brady here. This is the first quarter review and second quarter pre-view for 2011.
Now, in general, the first quarter was a little bouncy in February, but overall a positive quarter; actually, a very strong and nice quarter. The indexes, which of course… Read More
Large Selling in European Bonds
Posted on April 6th, 2011 by GWM
I’
m a broken record.
Europe continues to be sick and will slow down the global economy.
The worst with Europe is not over. It’s the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
What does this mean for you?
I’m not a fan of a large holding in Europe. Internationally, though, I continue to be impressed with some of the emerging markets out there. Irritatingly, Europe is being forced to address many fiscal imbalances we have here in the United States, but they’re… Read More
Bumpy Ride for Treasuries
Posted on April 6th, 2011 by GWM
B
onds go up and down in value based on interest rates, credit quality, and simple supply/demand.
The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.
Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More
Who Will Buy the Bonds?
Posted on March 9th, 2011 by GWM
Yo
u’ll see me in the coming months talk about the bond markets, particularly as the Quantitative Easing (QE2) comes to a close this summer.
We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.
With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.
I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More
S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA-
Posted on February 9th, 2011 by GWM
J
apan has been in a continued recession for the past 20 years.
The deficit levels of the Japan government are among the highest of the developed countries, and expected to increase in the coming years.
This is not good news for Japan. As the rating decreases, the extra premium paid to borrow money goes up. So, a 3% cost of borrow might increase to 4%.
Anyway, this is something to watch as the United States deficit to GDP is increasing rapidly.
Just When You Thought the Euro Was Out
Posted on February 9th, 2011 by GWM
Yo
u’ve been reading my newsletters and saying “boy, that Mike Brady knows everything”. That may be true, but it’s good to remember the markets have a mind of their own.
The Euro has rallied against other currencies recently.
Do I think this is a short term rally? Yes. Do I think the Euro and Europe in general still have long term problems? Yes.
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THE EURO WAS OUT
Muni Fund Outflows
Posted on February 2nd, 2011 by GWM
I
f you’ve been listening to my videos and reading my newsletter, you are minimally affected by the Municipal Bond declines over the past 2 months.
Yeah!
Outflows are huge right now and I anticipate they will continue while states determine how to balance their budgets.
To do: Continue to avoid Municipal Bonds unless you’ve really done your homework
Municipal Revenues Rebound
Posted on February 2nd, 2011 by GWM
2
008 and 2009 were devastating to state revenue, so in comparison to those hard years, 2010 showed an increase AS A PERCENTAGE from the previous year.
Revenues are still way down, and without the big influx from stimulus money the worst is yet to come.
2010 Review / 2011 Preview
Posted on January 12th, 2011 by GWM
This week is my annual 2010 review and 2011 preview.
I start out by talking about what I got right and wrong from my 2010 preview 12 months ago (you mean I’m accountable?)
I then talk about reasons to be bullish countered by reasons to be bearish on 2011.
I conclude my video with specific actions I’m taking with my clients. This includes
* What I’m doing with my bond exposure
* How I’m allocating amongst large cap, mid cap, and small cap
* What I’m watching as an indicator of market health… Read More
What is your Interest Rate Sensitivity?
Posted on December 2nd, 2010 by GWM
What is your interest rate sensitivity? If you reply “what does that mean”, then you definitely need to listen to my video below.
I talk about a quick and dirty way to estimate how a Rising Interest Rate will negatively effect your particular bonds and/or bond funds… Read More
China’s Inverted Curve
An inverted yield curve in the US has predicted 6 out of 7 worsening economic conditions in our country since 1970.
In China, we don’t have the same type of statistics because of their young open economy, but recently their yield curve has “inverted”.
I’m watching this and realizing it’s just another of many economic indicators out of China pointing towards a slower economy.
I really don’t want much (if any) exposure to the Chinese Stock Market.
This also has consequences to the whole… Read More
Italy’s Crashing Money Supply
Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece.
Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money).
The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy.
Information, Communication, Back to Basics
What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below.
Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have.
Lastly, now is a great time… Read More
Europe – Echoes of Lehman
The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.
Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.
We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.
Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN
 … Read More
Greek Bond Yields Surge
That might sound good, but what it really means is that the prices are plunging.
Stay away from Greece and watch Europe closely.
Greek Bond Yields Surge – Link
 … Read More
Who Has AAA Rating?
Municipals to be Downgraded?
One of the effects of a US Government downgrade is a municipal downgrade to follow.
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the past few years, you know I’ve advised you to watch your municipal holdings closely if you have any at all.
The free (relatively) capital market ultimately determines the cost municipals will have to pay to borrow money.
7,000 Muni Bonds at Risk of Automatic Downgrade
If the US Gov’t is downgraded (I argue when not if) then 7,000 municipal bonds will be automatically downgraed as well. At least according to Moody’s.
This really hurts retirees as they’re the largest part of this market.
US Government Bonds Downgraded from AAA to AA by German Rating Agency
One of the big drags on the economy in the coming years will be our fiscal deficits and budget problems.
I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).
This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More
Time to Buy Municipals?
I’
ve been negative on the finances of state and local governments for some time, and continue to believe it will get worse before it gets better.
This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.
He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.
I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.
 … Read More
Quarter End Review / Preview
This week’s video is my 1st Quarter Review and my 2nd Quarter Preview.
The first quarter was good (yeah!), and I list the items I’ll be watching and thinking about for the 2nd quarter.
A must see video (if I do say so myself).
TRANSCRIPT:
Hi Clients and Friends, Mike Brady here. This is the first quarter review and second quarter pre-view for 2011.
Now, in general, the first quarter was a little bouncy in February, but overall a positive quarter; actually, a very strong and nice quarter. The indexes, which of course… Read More
Large Selling in European Bonds
I’
m a broken record.
Europe continues to be sick and will slow down the global economy.
The worst with Europe is not over. It’s the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
What does this mean for you?
I’m not a fan of a large holding in Europe. Internationally, though, I continue to be impressed with some of the emerging markets out there. Irritatingly, Europe is being forced to address many fiscal imbalances we have here in the United States, but they’re… Read More
Bumpy Ride for Treasuries
B
onds go up and down in value based on interest rates, credit quality, and simple supply/demand.
The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.
Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More
Who Will Buy the Bonds?
Yo
u’ll see me in the coming months talk about the bond markets, particularly as the Quantitative Easing (QE2) comes to a close this summer.
We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.
With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.
I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More
S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA-
J
apan has been in a continued recession for the past 20 years.
The deficit levels of the Japan government are among the highest of the developed countries, and expected to increase in the coming years.
This is not good news for Japan. As the rating decreases, the extra premium paid to borrow money goes up. So, a 3% cost of borrow might increase to 4%.
Anyway, this is something to watch as the United States deficit to GDP is increasing rapidly.
Just When You Thought the Euro Was Out
Yo
u’ve been reading my newsletters and saying “boy, that Mike Brady knows everything”. That may be true, but it’s good to remember the markets have a mind of their own.
The Euro has rallied against other currencies recently.
Do I think this is a short term rally? Yes. Do I think the Euro and Europe in general still have long term problems? Yes.
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THE EURO WAS OUT
Muni Fund Outflows
I
f you’ve been listening to my videos and reading my newsletter, you are minimally affected by the Municipal Bond declines over the past 2 months.
Yeah!
Outflows are huge right now and I anticipate they will continue while states determine how to balance their budgets.
To do: Continue to avoid Municipal Bonds unless you’ve really done your homework
Municipal Revenues Rebound
2
008 and 2009 were devastating to state revenue, so in comparison to those hard years, 2010 showed an increase AS A PERCENTAGE from the previous year.
Revenues are still way down, and without the big influx from stimulus money the worst is yet to come.
2010 Review / 2011 Preview
This week is my annual 2010 review and 2011 preview.
I start out by talking about what I got right and wrong from my 2010 preview 12 months ago (you mean I’m accountable?)
I then talk about reasons to be bullish countered by reasons to be bearish on 2011.
I conclude my video with specific actions I’m taking with my clients. This includes
* What I’m doing with my bond exposure
* How I’m allocating amongst large cap, mid cap, and small cap
* What I’m watching as an indicator of market health… Read More
What is your Interest Rate Sensitivity?
What is your interest rate sensitivity? If you reply “what does that mean”, then you definitely need to listen to my video below.
I talk about a quick and dirty way to estimate how a Rising Interest Rate will negatively effect your particular bonds and/or bond funds… Read More
