According to Lou Barnes, a local mortgage broker who is frequently quoted in the national press, when the 10 year treasury yield hits about 3.33%, we’ll be back to 5% 30 year mortgages. Right now, the 10 year treasury is around 2.775%, up about 1.1% in just a few months. However, it has stabilized. The big question those in the investing world are asking is whether the yield will continue up, or go back down. If you watch my video, you’ll see that I believe the yield will go back down. But, as Lou points out, the correlation between the ... Read More
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes. But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues? I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts. Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs Transcript: Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado, and I am so pleased to talk with you this morning because we’re going to ... Read More
August 20th is a pivotal date when 3.8 billion Euros are due from Greece to the European Central Bank. The IMF is saying that if this isn’t paid, they’ll stop loaning money to Greece. Once the IMF is done with Greece, will the European Monetary Union be far behind? In my opinion, Greece will exit the Euro sooner rather than later, and this is good for the long term strength of the Euro. How will this affect our US markets? Always the big question. More stability and stronger private balance sheets makes the US a better investment I believe. Here’s ... Read More
Are you tired of reading and hearing about Greece? Me too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stop. The most recent Greek agreement is a joke (in my opinion) and makes a significant number of overly optimistic assumptions about the future. As I view it, there is no way the European Monetary Union can survive in it’s current form, and definitely not with Greece in there. Where is the money to be made for investors like us? I continue to advise a higher allocation to the United States and avoid Greece and the whole of Europe for at least ... Read More
Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic? Watch my video to find out. TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold. 2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly, when we look back at year upon year we ... Read More
Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece. Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money). The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy. Click for Italy’s Crashing Money Supply Read More
What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below. Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have. Lastly, now is a great time to get back to basics. Click ... Read More
The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward. A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other. I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my more comprehensive quarterly videos. Click to ... Read More
The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”. Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time. We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react. Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455 CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN Read More
One of the problems with Ireland is their huge reliance on banking for their economy. How do other countries fair as a percentage of their GDP? Luxembourg 2,461 Ireland 872 Switzerland 723 Greece 141 US 82 Want the full list? CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE Read More
What’s the difference between Fiscal and Monetary policy? It seems like discussions about these 2 similar, but very different, topics are forever getting confused. If you’re worried about taxes, deficits, and the debt, is that a fiscal or monetary issue? I want you to know the difference so you’re the smart one at the cocktail party discussion. Read More
Starting next year, the FDIC limit on checking accounts will increase from $250,000 to an unlimited amount. What? Isn’t the FDIC broke already? Yes, but why let that get in the way of a government (or quasi-government) policy. This coverage amount will last until the end of 2012. CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – BROKE FDIC EXPANDS CHECKING INSURANCE Read More
This is a quarter you’re going to hear about Quantitative Easing. I hate it. It’s my belief the increased money supply will stay on the books of the banking industry to offset any potential commercial real estate downgrades they’ll be making in the future. From the banks’ point of view, it makes perfect sense. For you and me, not so good. How did QE work in Japan and the UK? Not well at all. CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – QE DID NOT WORK IN THE UK Read More
This week’s diatribe is about off-balance sheet accounting and alternative financing. I’ve been approached multiple times in the past month or two about investment opportunities funding some activity outside of the normal funding channels (banks or equity financing). This leads me to wonder how much lending is happening in our economy this way and if it’s under the radar. I don’t like the sound of it. Listen to my video below. Read More
If you look back at my 3rd Quarter Preview (here) I mentioned I forecast the 3rd quarter would be up. That’s proving to be a great move (if I do say so myself). But what makes me nervous? This article sums up a lot of my feelings. Does that mean I’m bearish for the 4th Quarter? I guess you’ll have to wait until my 4th Quarter preview in a couple of weeks to find out. Click on this link for FULL ARTICLE Read More
Are we on the cusp of a secular bull market? Does the economy and the stock market go in sync? Is one a leading indicator for the other? How do you value the stock market? Forward P/Es or Reported P/Es? And how will our current deficits affect the answers to all these questions? This is one of the best articles of the year, packed with information for you to fully understand our current situation. For your convenience, I’ve highlighted what I think is most important. Read More
It’s the after fee return that matters, and this article is a good one because it talks about the importance of expense efficiency. Just because a mutual fund costs more doesn’t mean it’s better, but then just because it’s cheaper doesn’t mean it’s better either. Click for a further discussion Read More
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged, price-weighted index of 30 large capitalization stocks with dividends reinvested.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“S&P 500”) is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks, with dividends reinvested, and is often used as a proxy for the stock market.
The Nasdaq Composite is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, and are reported as price return without reinvestment of dividends.
Indexes are often used as a proxy for the stock market and cannot be invested in directly.