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Posts Tagged ‘S&P’

4th Quarter Preview

The 3rd quarter was good, essentially across the board.

However, I’m concerned about some leading indicators that are slowing and indicating a tough economy ahead (notably Chicago PMI) and I’m factoring that in.

That being said, I’m still looking for a nice finish to the year, but watching this next quarter very closely.

If it’s weak, then I’m concerned about 2013.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the quarter, but watch my video now to get my current thoughts… Read More

3rd Quarter Preview – Heading into the Election

The 2nd quarter distinguished itself by significantly increased volatility and ultimately seeing the unmanaged stock market indexes down.

Those same market indexes are still up for the year, and it’s my belief they will end the year positive, but with continued volatility.

November is the big election here in the United States, and regardless for whom you feel is better and hope will win, the market likes a reduction in uncertainty. At that point, at least some semblance of planning can be done for a few years by the private sector as it analyzes… Read More

Winners and Losers for the 2nd Quarter 2012

Much of the unmanaged stock market index gain for 2012 was in January, April, and June. May was brutal.

In my opinion, you must have a well diversified, long term strategy for your portfolio and for reaching your financial goals.

Do you have a plan and strategy you’re comfortable with? If the answer is “no” in any form, I encourage you to call me so we can discuss what needs to happen in order for you to emphatically answer “yes!” to… Read More

Thoughts After a Tough Month

Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.

The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.

Click to watch my video.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More

Current Thinking with Uncertainty in the Air

There are few things the stock and bond markets hate more than uncertainty. Currently, part of that uncertainty is the unraveling of the European Monetary Union and the impact that will have on us here in the United States.

Since the beginning of the year (see January and April videos in particular) I have been optimistic, but I have to say my enthusiasm for this market is waning. The summer months, historically difficult in themselves, have me concerned with lower GDP numbers, continued unemployment leading to the election, but most importantly concerns about the debt problem… Read More

Waving the White Flag

John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.

This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.

I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.

Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.

 Waving the White Flag

Active Management – Market Timing?

I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy.

My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers.

In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world.… Read More

Defeating the Myth You Must Win on Every Trade

If you’ve been following my newsletters over the years, you know I believe in diversification and that one of the key ingredients to reaching your goals is to avoid catastrophic financial events.

It’s important to note, as the table above illustrates, that not every investment has to make money. Limiting the size and number of the losses is important, and if avoiding any kind of loss at any time is your strategy, then you’ll always be on the sidelines.

Risk management is key, and with… Read More

1st Quarter Review – Am I Still Optimistic for 2nd Quarter?

The first quarter of this year was very forgiving of any errors. We’ve had low volatility, generally positive economic reports, and even Europe has been less in the news than previously.

Watch my video for my thoughts about the 1st quarter, and to find out if I’m still optimistic for the 2nd quarter and rest of the year.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and I am here in Boulder Colorado, giving you my first quarter review and my second quarter preview.

Absolutely wonderful first quarter; I’m… Read More

Stay the Course?

Are you a “lane changer”? In traffic, he’s the guy who’s constantly changing lanes, expending a lot of energy but doesn’t really get ahead.

We all know we’re supposed to “buy low and sell high”, but unfortunately your average investor doesn’t do that. When we look at the flows into and out of equity funds we find that people are pouring tons of money in when the markets are high and withdrawing at market bottoms.

Why? By the time people feel comfortable with the direction of the market (investor confidence is increasing), they’re looking at recent past data… Read More

Intra-Year Declines

It is common for there to be declines in the markets throughout the year, sometimes even double digits declines.

This is to be expected.

As an investor, one of the reasons we diversify and modify our allocations throughout the year is to try to minimize these fluctuations.

What should you do when there is one of these expected declines? It depends on the situation at that time.

Please click on the video below for a 4 minute discussion I give on this topic……

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More

Corporate Profitability

I say in my video that “on balance” I’m more optimistic than pessimistic for 2012.

See graph to right.

Europe, China, Deleveraging, etc. are the forces against this we have to watch out for.

&nbsp… Read More

2011 Recap and 2012 Outlook – Year End Video

Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic?

Watch my video to find out.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold.

2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly… Read More

Volatility, Healthcare in Retirement

It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition.

I talk about this in my video.

I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions.

Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more!

TRANSCRIPT:… Read More

Volatility Whipsaw

As a complement to some of the volatility I discuss in my video, you can see in the chart to the left that what goes up one month can go down the next.

November was as bad as October was good.

Click for Volatility Whipsaw

A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis

By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.

If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.

Click for an outstanding chart on the European problem

3rd Quarter Review / 4th Quarter Review

The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward.

A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other.

I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my… Read More

I am taking new clients

Last quarter a client of mine asked my permission to refer his friend to me. He didn’t want to offend me by giving out my business card without my okay.

I’m hereby giving everyone permission to offend me!

What this conversation led me to understand is that I haven’t done a very good job communicating that Generosity Wealth Management has the knowledge, infrastructure, and expertise to help out your friends, family, and those you care about.

I work with clients… Read More

Europe – Echoes of Lehman

The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.

Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.

We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.

Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455

CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN

&nbsp… Read More

Extended Corporate Profits

As I mentioned last week, corporate profits are very good right now, which bodes well for a long term investment.

In the meantime, they’ll continue to be volatile.

CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EXTENDED CORPORATE PROFITS