I’ve been watching the situation in Europe for years now, and fundamentally they have serious long term issues.
Specifically, their debt levels, unfunded pension obligations, and employment policies.
The long term unemployment rate for Europe has only gotten worse in the past few years.
Click on the below link for the full discussion of this
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This is particularly disturbing when you see teen and young professional unemployment in the 25% unemployed range.
The European economies have some real trouble now and in the future. What is interesting is that many of their stock markets are positive for the year.
This goes back to my statement in a previous newsletter that the stock market of a country does not necessary move in step with the economy.
Unemployment in Europe is at an all time high.
Inflation has fallen to 1.2%
Will Europe cut rates and cause a stimulus?
I think they will.
How does this help us? It hopefully will slow the decline that is Europe, even if it’s not going to turn everything around long term until Europe gets the relationship between their debt relative to their GDP in order.
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.
But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?
I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.
Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs
Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More
August 20th is a pivotal date when 3.8 billion Euros are due from Greece to the European Central Bank.
The IMF is saying that if this isn’t paid, they’ll stop loaning money to Greece.
Once the IMF is done with Greece, will the European Monetary Union be far behind?
In my opinion, Greece will exit the Euro sooner rather than later, and this is good for the long term strength of the Euro.
How will this affect our US markets? Always the big question… Read More
Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.
The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.
Click to watch my video.
Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More
There are few things the stock and bond markets hate more than uncertainty. Currently, part of that uncertainty is the unraveling of the European Monetary Union and the impact that will have on us here in the United States.
Since the beginning of the year (see January and April videos in particular) I have been optimistic, but I have to say my enthusiasm for this market is waning. The summer months, historically difficult in themselves, have me concerned with lower GDP numbers, continued unemployment leading to the election, but most importantly concerns about the debt problem… Read More
This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.
I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.
Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.
Why? Weaker demand from Europe and the United States is one reason. Factories being temporarily shut down due to Chinese New Year could be another reason.
Is this seasonal anomaly or one more bad sign coming out of China?
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The most recent Greek agreement is a joke (in my opinion) and makes a significant number of overly optimistic assumptions about the future.
As I view it, there is no way the European Monetary Union can survive in it’s current form, and definitely not with Greece in there.
Where is the money to be made for investors like us?
I continue… Read More
Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic?
Watch my video to find out.
Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold.
2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly… Read More
As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change.
The question is: what does this mean for your investments?
1. I continue to caution… Read More
Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money).
The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy.
What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below.
Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have.
Lastly, now is a great time… Read More
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward.
A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other.
I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my… Read More
Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.
We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.
Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455
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I’ve had a relatively low position in stocks for clients for quite some time, but I’ve decided to lower it even further. I’m quite concerned about the correlation between Europe and the US, emotion/news driven volatility, and the uncertainty about what the Fed will do.
The risk just doesn’t warrant having as high a percentage as I’ve had.
On the flip side, profitability, efficiency, and cash balances have all been rising in the firms that comprise the S&P 500.
Is the return worth the risk?
Click on video to hear more.
TRANSCRIPT… Read More