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Posts Tagged ‘Europe’

Risk of Third German Recession Pressures Europe

Tensions with Russia, slowing global growth and falling consumer confidence mean the region’s biggest economy struggled to grow in the past 3 months, and may turn out to have shrunk for a 2nd quarter running. Merkel

Across the Eurozone as a whole, recently released data showed that economic sentiment dipped in September for a 4th month in a row.

Questions abound about whether this could lead into a vicious circle of falling prices and stagnation.

I’ll continue to watch this closely and make… Read More

Unemployment in Europe – Still a Disaster

 

2013 12 13 europe unemployment chart

I’ve been watching the situation in Europe for years now, and fundamentally they have serious long term issues.

Specifically, their debt levels, unfunded pension obligations, and employment policies.

The long term unemployment rate for Europe has only gotten worse in the past few years.

Click on the below link for the full discussion of this

Unemployment in Europe Still a Disaster- Full Article

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Record Unemployment in Europe

Record Unemployment in Europe

This is particularly disturbing when you see teen and young professional unemployment in the 25% unemployed range.

The European economies have some real trouble now and in the future. What is interesting is that many of their stock markets are positive for the year.

This goes back to my statement in a previous newsletter that the stock market of a country does not necessary move in step with the economy.

Stimulus in Europe?

Gold money

Unemployment in Europe is at an all time high.

Inflation has fallen to 1.2%

Will Europe cut rates and cause a stimulus?

I think they will.

How does this help us?  It hopefully will slow the decline that is Europe, even if it’s not going to turn everything around long term until Europe gets the relationship between their debt relative to their GDP in order.

Click for the full article.

The Quarter in Review and Unintended Consequences

The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.

But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?

I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.

 

 Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs

Transcript:

Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More

IMF to Kick Out Greece

August 20th is a pivotal date when 3.8 billion Euros are due from Greece to the European Central Bank.

The IMF is saying that if this isn’t paid, they’ll stop loaning money to Greece.

Once the IMF is done with Greece, will the European Monetary Union be far behind?

In my opinion, Greece will exit the Euro sooner rather than later, and this is good for the long term strength of the Euro.

How will this affect our US markets? Always the big question… Read More

Thoughts After a Tough Month

Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.

The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.

Click to watch my video.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More

Current Thinking with Uncertainty in the Air

There are few things the stock and bond markets hate more than uncertainty. Currently, part of that uncertainty is the unraveling of the European Monetary Union and the impact that will have on us here in the United States.

Since the beginning of the year (see January and April videos in particular) I have been optimistic, but I have to say my enthusiasm for this market is waning. The summer months, historically difficult in themselves, have me concerned with lower GDP numbers, continued unemployment leading to the election, but most importantly concerns about the debt problem… Read More

Waving the White Flag

John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.

This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.

I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.

Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.

 Waving the White Flag

China Had a Trade Deficit in February

China had its largest trade deficit in 22 years this past February of $31.5 billion.

Why? Weaker demand from Europe and the United States is one reason. Factories being temporarily shut down due to Chinese New Year could be another reason.

Is this seasonal anomaly or one more bad sign coming out of China?

Stay tuned

 CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE

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Greece

Are you tired of reading and hearing about Greece? Me too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stop.

The most recent Greek agreement is a joke (in my opinion) and makes a significant number of overly optimistic assumptions about the future.

As I view it, there is no way the European Monetary Union can survive in it’s current form, and definitely not with Greece in there.

Where is the money to be made for investors like us?

I continue… Read More

Interactive Comparison of GDP

The United States is the largest GDP in the world. How do other countries stack up to individual states? See for yourself.

Here’s a great interactive comparison website.

CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE

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2011 Recap and 2012 Outlook – Year End Video

Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic?

Watch my video to find out.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold.

2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly… Read More

Enough with Europe Already!

Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not.

As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change.

The question is: what does this mean for your investments?

1. I continue to caution… Read More

Italy’s Crashing Money Supply

Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece.

Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money).

The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy.

Click for Italy’s Crashing Money Supply

Information, Communication, Back to Basics

What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below.

Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have.

Lastly, now is a great time… Read More

A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis

By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.

If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.

Click for an outstanding chart on the European problem

3rd Quarter Review / 4th Quarter Review

The 3rd Quarter 2011 is over and I have a slightly longer video this week because I want to address the current environment and how things may shape up going forward.

A big theme is my advice to assess your overall plan and risk tolerance, and also to ensure you’re looking at both positive and negative points of view on the markets instead of just one view over the other.

I send my newsletter and videos on a weekly basis, so if you watch only a few througout the year, at least watch my… Read More

Europe – Echoes of Lehman

The big question we need to answer is “what happens after a Greek default?”.

Lehman’s collapse was a full year before the financial crisis of 2008, and it’s very probable the full impact of Europe imploding won’t be felt for some time.

We, as investors, need to stay informed and ready to react.

Please continue to read my newsletters and blogs, and have my number in your speed dial. 303.747.6455

CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EUROPE ECHOES OF LEHMAN

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Where Do We Go From Here?

I’ve had a relatively low position in stocks for clients for quite some time, but I’ve decided to lower it even further. I’m quite concerned about the correlation between Europe and the US, emotion/news driven volatility, and the uncertainty about what the Fed will do.

The risk just doesn’t warrant having as high a percentage as I’ve had.

On the flip side, profitability, efficiency, and cash balances have all been rising in the firms that comprise the S&P 500.

Is the return worth the risk?

Click on video to hear more.

TRANSCRIPT… Read More