Three quarters into 2026, investors have already had a useful reminder of one of the most important principles of long-term investing: not every quarter needs to be remarkable.
After a strong first half of the year, the third quarter finished relatively flat. But a quieter quarter doesn’t necessarily tell us much about where we’re ultimately headed.
Market declines—even meaningful ones—are a normal part of investing. Historically, positive calendar years have often included significant declines along the way. And when we expand our perspective from a single year to five, ten or twenty years, the range of potential outcomes has historically narrowed considerably.
In her latest market update, Autumn Davidson, Wealth Advisor at Generosity Wealth Management, looks at Q3 and year-to-date 2026 performance in the context of longer-term market history.
But the numbers lead to an even more important question: Is your portfolio still positioned to support the life you’re building?
Because ultimately, investment performance isn’t the goal. It’s one of the tools we use to help move toward what matters to you.
TRANSCRIPT
Hi everyone, it’s Autumn Davidson with Generosity Wealth Management, and for our October newsletter video, I’ll be covering the last quarter, our year to date so far, and how that compares to what we’ve seen historically. We are three quarters into 2026 so far, and overall it’s been a good one. The third quarter itself came in close to flat, essentially break-even, after a stronger first half to the year. That kind of quarter isn’t unusual, and looking back over time, our experience is that roughly three out of every four quarters.
One of the most useful ways to put short-term market movement into perspective is to look at what happens within individual calendar years. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of 14.2%—yet finished the year with a positive return in 35 of the 46 years shown below.
Quarters are positive, and so are about three out of every four full years. This chart goes back to 1980 and it tells the same story. Most years finish positive, even though almost every single one includes a real pullback somewhere along the way. Nobody, not us, not anyone, knows exactly what the next quarter will bring. That’s always true. We’ve seen quarters like this one before, and we’ve seen quarters that felt a lot worse. What matters isn’t guessing right on any single quarter, it’s staying invested.
Looking at a single year can reveal a wide range of potential outcomes. Historically, however, those ranges have narrowed as the investment period extends from one year to five, ten and twenty years.
The chart compares historical rolling returns for stocks, bonds and a blended 60% stock/40% bond portfolio from 1950 through 2025.
Staying diversified and keeping our minds on the long term. Here’s the thing worth remembering: performance by itself isn’t the goal. The real question is whether your portfolio is still on track to support the life that you’re building. Take a simple 60-40 mix of stocks and bonds. Over any single year, the swings can be wide: strong gains in some years, real losses in others. Stretch that same mix out to 5, 10, or 20 years, and the range narrows considerably.
The highs come down, the lows come up. There has never been a 20-year period for this kind of portfolio that didn’t break even or better. So, as we close out the quarter, the numbers are just one part of the picture. What matters most is whether we’re still moving towards what matters to you. If anything’s changed in your life or you just want to talk through the last quarter, please reach out anytime. Thank you for watching, and we’ll see you in the next one.