Should You Freak Out? – 2011 07 27
Debt Ceiling, Greek and European debt issues, bad global recession…..
Should you freak out? Time to move the cash to the mattress? I don’t think so.
Here are my current thoughts……..
Hi! Welcome to the Generosity Wealth Management weekly Video/ Newsletter.
And this is the last week of July and what is really hot topic in the news right now is the debt ceiling negotiations; you know, should you panic, should you freak out, should you change your portfolio? And I have to tell you that I am actually more optimistic than pessimistic; which is in favor right now. That is kind of the easy thing to do. I mean we joke in our industry that economists have predicted ten of the last two recessions, and I don’t want to be that guy.
We’ve spent the last ten weeks downgrading the S&P 500, earning expectations, and we’ve heard from about 2/3 of the S&P 500, for the second quarter and surprise- 75% of them have exceeded those pretty low expectations. Right now companies have a huge amount of cash that they’ve been hording. Cash is ridiculously cheap right now. You’ve got earnings, their efficiencies are good. I continue to be somewhat optimistic about the second half of the year. I said that three weeks ago and I have not changed my opinion that we’re looking at some big abyss, some crevasse that’s going to hit us. I just don’t see that.
We’ve got three things that I’m really kind of paying attention to; we’ve got the GDP that’s coming out this Friday; we’ve got more earnings estimates that are coming out; and then we’ve got this debt ceiling.
If I have to guess on the debt ceiling-we’re going to kick the can down the road for a bit. It’s going to be relatively short to mid-term increase in the debt. Just enough to keep the newspapers in business with headlines. You know we’re going to be hearing about this for the next six to twelve months, irritatingly. But it is what it is.
The market as a whole is pretty much back to where it was in April before this correction. And with all these other things it’s actually surprisingly held its own. And as I mentioned we’re going to be looking at the GDP, we’re going to be looking at the debt, we’re going to be looking at the earnings. The earnings are looking good. The debt, I think, when the world doesn’t end on August 2nd, is going to be less of an event than what you’ve been led to believe.
And then going back to the GDP estimate, which is not really sure what. It’s been having some bad numbers, frankly, in the last couple of months. But the others are looking good.
Plus, I mean, the opportunities, just abysmal opportunities in bonds, kind of leads me to, and all the cash that been kind of on the side lines, kind of leads me to believe that this is going to be a good thing for August, September- not necessarily a bad thing.
So I’m going back to feeling good about my assessment at the beginning of the quarter.
Anyway, my name is Mike Brady. I am an integrated, holistic, comprehensive wealth management firm, here in Boulder, Colorado, but I have clients throughout the United States. My phone number; 303.747.6455. You have a wonderful week, and I’ll talk to you later.