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Posts Tagged ‘Risk’

Confidence in Retirement

One third (1/3) of workers and retirees have less than $1,000 in savings and investments in their retirement nest egg.

Only 44% have done a calculation to find out how much they should be saving.  Confidence in Retirement Picture

 With longer life expectancies, your retirement years can be the best years of your life, but outliving your money is a real risk!

 One of the biggest and best values I bring to clients is the ability to put the pieces of retirement planning together, and chart… Read More

Betting Against the Crowd

Here’s a good paper that studies returns going back to 19roll the dice20 to see how buying a country, company, or industry that has had a decline of 60% or more does for the next 3 years.

Basically it’s saying there’s validity to Warren Buffet’s phrase “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

Of course, there were notable exceptions to the rule, but an interesting article and study nonetheless.

Betting Against the Crowd

The Quarter in Review and Unintended Consequences

The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.

But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?

I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.

 

 Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs

Transcript:

Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More

Fiscal Cliff-What’s All the Hubbub?

You’re probably hearing a lot about the Fiscal Cliff, and may be wondering

• What does it really mean?

• What are the implications?

• What can, or should, I do?

In order to answer these questions, I have a slightly longer than usual video this week (about 10 minutes), but one of the best ones I’ve done in a while (if I do say so myself).

This is a very timely subect, and you’ll be hearing about the Fiscal Cliff in all the media for the next month or so. Now is your chance… Read More

2013 Tax Planning Guide

One month left in 2012.

 Now is the time to ensure you’ve done your last minute tax planning for 2012, and looking towards 2013.… Read More

The Fiscal Cliff

I reference the important Tax Policies above that need to be addressed by the end of the year.

With the election over, will the Congress finally address it?

Click here for a full discussion of this. You’ll be hearing a lot about it in the next 2 months.

4th Quarter Preview

The 3rd quarter was good, essentially across the board.

However, I’m concerned about some leading indicators that are slowing and indicating a tough economy ahead (notably Chicago PMI) and I’m factoring that in.

That being said, I’m still looking for a nice finish to the year, but watching this next quarter very closely.

If it’s weak, then I’m concerned about 2013.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the quarter, but watch my video now to get my current thoughts… Read More

3rd Quarter Preview – Heading into the Election

The 2nd quarter distinguished itself by significantly increased volatility and ultimately seeing the unmanaged stock market indexes down.

Those same market indexes are still up for the year, and it’s my belief they will end the year positive, but with continued volatility.

November is the big election here in the United States, and regardless for whom you feel is better and hope will win, the market likes a reduction in uncertainty. At that point, at least some semblance of planning can be done for a few years by the private sector as it analyzes… Read More

Thoughts After a Tough Month

Sorry in advance for a longer than usual video this month (7.5 minutes), but I have some charts and graphs in there to provide some context for the slow ride down in the un-managed stock market indexes that we saw for May.

The question we always have to ask ourselves is “what is this telling us?” and “what does this mean for the future?”.

Click to watch my video.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management speaking to you from Boulder, Colorado. And today I want to talk… Read More

Current Thinking with Uncertainty in the Air

There are few things the stock and bond markets hate more than uncertainty. Currently, part of that uncertainty is the unraveling of the European Monetary Union and the impact that will have on us here in the United States.

Since the beginning of the year (see January and April videos in particular) I have been optimistic, but I have to say my enthusiasm for this market is waning. The summer months, historically difficult in themselves, have me concerned with lower GDP numbers, continued unemployment leading to the election, but most importantly concerns about the debt problem… Read More

Waving the White Flag

John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.

This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.

I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.

Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.

 Waving the White Flag

Planning for a 30 Year Retirement

With increasing life expectancies, there is a very real risk of outliving your money or not living in the lifestyle you’d like.

This article is how to plan for a 30 Year Retirement, with some great suggestions about the retirement plan you create.

One of the best things I do for my clients is the planning, creation, and monitoring of a retirement plan. This is not only before retirement, but after as well.

If you don’t have a retirement plan… Read More

Active Management – Market Timing?

I’m asked periodically what I think of “market timing” or “active management” versus a straight buy and hold philosophy.

My first response is usually to ask for a definition of those terms. While it may be obvious to the person asking the question, if you ask 3 people you’ll get 3 different answers.

In this week’s video, I propose some definitions, but also share that while I think active management is preferable over your traditional buy & hold, market timing is great in theory but hard to execute in the real world.… Read More

Defeating the Myth You Must Win on Every Trade

If you’ve been following my newsletters over the years, you know I believe in diversification and that one of the key ingredients to reaching your goals is to avoid catastrophic financial events.

It’s important to note, as the table above illustrates, that not every investment has to make money. Limiting the size and number of the losses is important, and if avoiding any kind of loss at any time is your strategy, then you’ll always be on the sidelines.

Risk management is key, and with… Read More

1st Quarter Review – Am I Still Optimistic for 2nd Quarter?

The first quarter of this year was very forgiving of any errors. We’ve had low volatility, generally positive economic reports, and even Europe has been less in the news than previously.

Watch my video for my thoughts about the 1st quarter, and to find out if I’m still optimistic for the 2nd quarter and rest of the year.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management and I am here in Boulder Colorado, giving you my first quarter review and my second quarter preview.

Absolutely wonderful first quarter; I’m… Read More

Volatility in the Future

The VIX (implied volatility index) has become very steep.

The 7th contract (6 months out) is significantly higher than current implied volatility.

What does this mean?

It simply means that the market is pricing in risks of a correction later on in the year.

Will it happen? Nothing is for certain, and if you have a long term diversified strategy (which hopefully you do) then this may just be a bump in the road

&nbsp… Read More

Stay the Course?

Are you a “lane changer”? In traffic, he’s the guy who’s constantly changing lanes, expending a lot of energy but doesn’t really get ahead.

We all know we’re supposed to “buy low and sell high”, but unfortunately your average investor doesn’t do that. When we look at the flows into and out of equity funds we find that people are pouring tons of money in when the markets are high and withdrawing at market bottoms.

Why? By the time people feel comfortable with the direction of the market (investor confidence is increasing), they’re looking at recent past data… Read More

Intra-Year Declines

It is common for there to be declines in the markets throughout the year, sometimes even double digits declines.

This is to be expected.

As an investor, one of the reasons we diversify and modify our allocations throughout the year is to try to minimize these fluctuations.

What should you do when there is one of these expected declines? It depends on the situation at that time.

Please click on the video below for a 4 minute discussion I give on this topic……

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More

2011 Recap and 2012 Outlook – Year End Video

Goodbye 2011 and hello 2012! What happened and what’s my outlook for 2012? Optimistic or pessimistic?

Watch my video to find out.

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, and today I want to talk to you about a little bit of a review on 2011, but spend most of my time talking about the current situation right now. And you know, maybe do a little bit of a, …, thinking about 2012 and what the future may hold.

2011 was a real volatile year. I mean frankly… Read More

5 Worst Market Calls for 2011

Even the best can make bad calls.

Warren Buffett buying Bank of America? Woops.

Bill Gross betting against Treasuries? Yikes.

John Corzine? John Paulson? Both very wrong in their market calls.

You’ve heard me over past 3 years talk about humility and diversification. My 21 years in the business has taught me that the investment, sector, stock, etc. that I absolutely love is still the one I need to calmly and rationally buy in an amount that I’m willing to… Read More