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Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Current Market Situation

There is so much in the news right now, most of it about the impending debt ceiling crisis. Most of what you read, hear, and watch is sensationalized (in my opinion), so in this quarter’s video I basically dissect where we are right now, paying attention to the data points that I think are relevant.

Being the contrarian I am, I also address some common, assumed facts or assumptions that I simply don’t believe.

A longer than normal video, but let me conclude by saying I’m still optimistic, and not freaked out (unlike pundits… Read More

Who Owns Our Debt

who owns our debt

There’s a perception China owns all of the Treasury Bonds, but they actually own less than 10%. The biggest single owner of US Federal Debt is the Federal Reserve Bank.

The above graph shows foreign holders of our debt.

Who Owns Our Debt

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The Quarter in Review and Unintended Consequences

The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.

But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?

I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.

 

 Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs

Transcript:

Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More

The Year in Review- The Year in Preview

Out with the old and in with the new!

2012 had some ups and downs, but ended up in the positive territory for the un-managed stock market indexes.

My outlook for 2013 is not quite as optimistic as it’s been the past few years for a number of reasons.

In my video, I recap 2012, provide some thoughts on 2013, and discuss my philosophy how different strategies should be considered going forward.

TRANSCRIPT:

Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a full-service, comprehensive wealth… Read More

The Fiscal Cliff

I reference the important Tax Policies in my video that should be addressed by the end of the year.

 With the election over, will Congress finally address it?… Read More

The Fiscal Cliff

I reference the important Tax Policies above that need to be addressed by the end of the year.

With the election over, will the Congress finally address it?

Click here for a full discussion of this. You’ll be hearing a lot about it in the next 2 months.

IMF to Kick Out Greece

August 20th is a pivotal date when 3.8 billion Euros are due from Greece to the European Central Bank.

The IMF is saying that if this isn’t paid, they’ll stop loaning money to Greece.

Once the IMF is done with Greece, will the European Monetary Union be far behind?

In my opinion, Greece will exit the Euro sooner rather than later, and this is good for the long term strength of the Euro.

How will this affect our US markets? Always the big question… Read More

Current Thinking with Uncertainty in the Air

There are few things the stock and bond markets hate more than uncertainty. Currently, part of that uncertainty is the unraveling of the European Monetary Union and the impact that will have on us here in the United States.

Since the beginning of the year (see January and April videos in particular) I have been optimistic, but I have to say my enthusiasm for this market is waning. The summer months, historically difficult in themselves, have me concerned with lower GDP numbers, continued unemployment leading to the election, but most importantly concerns about the debt problem… Read More

Waving the White Flag

John Mauldin is one of my favorite newsletter writers.

This week’s newsletter speaks exactly to what my video above addresses–the elephant in the investment room is Europe.

I highly encourage you to set aside 10 minutes to read this weekend’s newsletter. It goes into greater depth than I can in the 3 to 4 minutes for my video.

Europe is the concern as we enter the dull summer months.

 Waving the White Flag

Japan Slowly Awakening to Debt Situation

One of my goals in my newsletter is to bring to your awareness things that I find interesting or alarming.

The article below is in the “alarming” category.

Japan borows more than it raises in taxes, and its debt amounts to two years’ worth of Japan’s economic output.

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. Half of the country’s tax income is directed to simply servicing it’s debt.

In addition to Europe and China (which I’ve written about… Read More

Information, Communication, Back to Basics

What an interesting month! Who would have thought it would turn out to be such a good month just a short 3 to 4 weeks ago? Many people actually, if you seek out alternative voices to that which you see in the daily paper or newscast. I talk about this in this week’s video below.

Also, I talk about how you should assess the level of communication in the past 2 to 3 months from your adviser. Did you hear from him/her? You sure as heck should have.

Lastly, now is a great time… Read More

A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis

By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.

If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.

Click for an outstanding chart on the European problem

Should You Freak Out? – 2011 07 27

Debt Ceiling, Greek and European debt issues, bad global recession…..

 Should you freak out? Time to move the cash to the mattress? I don’t think so.

 Here are my current thoughts……..

TRANSCRIPT:

Hi! Welcome to the Generosity Wealth Management weekly Video/ Newsletter.

And this is the last week of July and what is really hot topic in the news right now is the debt ceiling negotiations; you know, should you panic, should you freak out, should you change your portfolio? And I have to tell you that I am actually more optimistic than… Read More

America Can Not Go the Way of Greece

As I mention in my video above, Greece is a fascinating story unfolding. I wish it was only Greece, but we have a few other countries in Europe that will be following it in the headlines over the coming year.

This is a good article on a few dissimilaries between Greece and the United States.

Why do you care?

When you’re at a summer BBQ, some know-it-all guy is going to start getting all apocalyptic on the US. You need the ammo to refute that… Read More

US Government Bonds Downgraded from AAA to AA by German Rating Agency

One of the big drags on the economy in the coming years will be our fiscal deficits and budget problems.

I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).

This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More

It’s not a Banking Problem

This article is good because it talks about Household and Consumer Debt as the underlying problem with our financial problems, not the banking regulations.

I happen to agree personal consumer debt has been a huge problem for our country and will continue to be a major factor in the next crisis.

What can you do?

Get your personal debt under control and as low as possible. If you need help with strategies around this, please let me know me.

LINK TO FULL ARTICLE

Time to Buy Municipals?

I’ve been negative on the finances of state and local governments for some time, and continue to believe it will get worse before it gets better.

This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.

He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.

I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.

 

LINK TO FULL ARTICLE

 

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Large Selling in European Bonds

I’m a broken record.

Europe continues to be sick and will slow down the global economy.

The worst with Europe is not over. It’s the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.

What does this mean for you?

I’m not a fan of a large holding in Europe. Internationally, though, I continue to be impressed with some of the emerging markets out there. Irritatingly, Europe is being forced to address many fiscal imbalances we have here in the United States, but they’re… Read More

Bumpy Ride for Treasuries

Bonds go up and down in value based on interest rates, credit quality, and simple supply/demand.

The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.

Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.

What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More

Who Will Buy the Bonds?

You’ll see me in the coming months talk about the bond markets, particularly as the Quantitative Easing (QE2) comes to a close this summer.

We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.

With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.

I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More