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Archive for the ‘Market Commentary’ Category

Warren Buffet’s Biggest Losses

2014 06 25 Berkshire Hathaway- losses since 1980

When you hear 9 – 10% in the stock market, you must remember that those returns contain every single type of market environment.

Warren Buffet is one of the most successful investors ever, and he still has declines at some point.  But, he has the right behaviors ingrained in him to “be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”.

No one likes declines, but they are part of a full market cycle.  When constructing a

Investing in Previous Year Winners

One thing to watch out for is assuming the future will reflect the past. As a matter of fact, that whole “past performance is no guarantee of future result” is actually true.

So, looking at history over the past 14 to 15 years, what would happen with your returns and volatility if you had invested for the year based on the best asset class for the prior year?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Therefore, you should watch my video.

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management… Read More

Volatility is Up

volatilityThe unmanaged stock market indexes are experiencing much more volatility this year compared to last.

Now is the time a well balanced portfolio really shows it’s worth.

Market Moves – Full Article

First Quarter and into the Rest of the Year

The first quarter is now behind us, but all the excitement happened in the first week of April!

After reaching new highs, the unmanaged stock market indexes pulled back a little bit, so the question we have to ask ourselves is “what does this mean for the rest of the year?”.

Good question, and one I answer in the below video:

 

Hi, this is Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado, and today I want to talk about… Read More

January Volatility

In my video today, I discuss the most recent January volatility in the stock markets.

Does the worst January in the Dow since 2009 mean we need to change our strategy?

Is there any change I recommend since my last video about 3 weeks ago?

For the answer to these questions, listen to my 4 minute video.

Don’t be a Slave to History

20 year average annual return

Twelve months ago, the 5 year return for the S&P would have covered 2008 – 2012, for a +1.66% annual return (including reinvested dividends). Today and one year later, because a bad year dropped off (2008) and is replaced by a good year (2013), the 5 year annualized return jumps up to +17.94%.

Let’s look at another longer term statistic. A year ago, the 20 year annualized S&P 500 return was +8.22% a year vs. +8.50% a year for long term Treasuries… Read More

One Year Ends and Another Begins

2013 was a great year for stocks/equities in general, and pretty bad for bonds. If only we could rewind the year and go 100% in stocks.

But would that be wise? Sure, in hindsight and only since we know how it turns out. But investing doesn’t work that way. We work in the unknown, crafting a disciplined investment strategy that helps a person reach their goals.

I have a full 2013 recap and 2014 thoughts in my video, so I highly recommend you watch it.

 

Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More

Wrong Lessons from 2013

In my video today, I discuss what I’m hoping people don’t take away from 2013.

Diversification? What that?

For a full discussion of this, listen to my video.

Transcript:

Hi there, Michael Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.

Today, I want to talk to about the lessons of 2013. I know it is only mid-December but we’ve got 11 1/2 months and I think it’s close enough. More than anything, I want to talk about the lessons I’m hoping investors… Read More

Current Market Situation

There is so much in the news right now, most of it about the impending debt ceiling crisis. Most of what you read, hear, and watch is sensationalized (in my opinion), so in this quarter’s video I basically dissect where we are right now, paying attention to the data points that I think are relevant.

Being the contrarian I am, I also address some common, assumed facts or assumptions that I simply don’t believe.

A longer than normal video, but let me conclude by saying I’m still optimistic, and not freaked out (unlike pundits… Read More

Federal Reserve Comments in 2013

federal reserve comments in 2013

As I mention in my video, the price of bonds (in general) have decreased causing yields to increase. The above graph shows comments from the Fed which has led so many people to have speculated they’d cut back on the bond buy back.

As of last month, the Fed Chairman has stated the bond buy back will stay in place.

For more graphs and a discussion, here’s the full article.

Is it time to run for the hills?

In my video today, I ask the question “is it time to run for the hills, or jump off the ledge?” because of the recent increased volatility and decline in the markets.

Let me give you the short answer: no.

The bond correction was an over reaction, and the most recent equity dip is not a precursor to some big decline. At least not in my opinion.

For a full discussion of this, listen to my short video where I expand on these ideas.

 

Hi there, it’s… Read More

Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?

9-5-13 emerging markets graph

I think highly of Mark Mobius, and he makes a strong argument that emerging markets, while they’ve had some correction this year, is still a great place to invest.

I happen to agree with him.

It’s a great article, so be sure to click and read.

Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?

&nbsp… Read More

Revised GDP rises to 2.5%

9-5-13 GDP graph

The numbers are increased mainly due to net trade numbers being positive, while personal consumption and fixed investments declined.

If the positive net trade numbers continue, this is very good for us.

The decrease in personal consumption and fixed investments is a negative for the U.S.

Stay tuned to the next publication of the numbers as I’ll be tracking the trends.

Full Article

5% 30 Year Mortgages

According to Lou Barnes, a local mortgage broker who is frequently quo9-5-13 mortgage graphted in the national press, when the 10 year treasury yield hits about 3.33%, we’ll be back to 5% 30 year mortgages.

Right now, the 10 year treasury is around 2.775%, up about 1.1% in just a few months.  However, it has stabilized.

The big question those in the investing world are asking is whether the yield will continue up, or go back down.

If you watch my video, you’ll see that I believe… Read More

The Quarter in Review

The second quarter was a tough quarter, particularly at the end. Continued emphasis on government fiscal and monetary policies, both here and abroad, played havoc with bond, stock, and precious metal investors. It’s enough to make my hair turn white!

Click on my video to get my thoughts on the past quarter (over-reaction) and the upcoming one. The year is not over!

Hello, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado. I’m here for my second quarter review and… Read More

June’s Winners and Losers

June 2013 winners and losers chart

 

 

 

 

 

This chart is for the month of June. Need I say more? Tough month…….

For more graphs and a discussion, here’s the full article.

Full Article and Graphs

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Betting Against the Crowd

Here’s a good paper that studies returns going back to 19roll the dice20 to see how buying a country, company, or industry that has had a decline of 60% or more does for the next 3 years.

Basically it’s saying there’s validity to Warren Buffet’s phrase “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

Of course, there were notable exceptions to the rule, but an interesting article and study nonetheless.

Betting Against the Crowd

Thoughts on Current Market News

I think of today’s video as my “mid-newsletter” thoughts, as I want to be timely in my communication with you.

The stock and bond markets have been more prominent in the news lately, and I want to share with you my analysis.

So, is it jumping off the ledge time, or is this just a part of the cyclical nature of the markets?

Watch my video to find out my opinion.

 

Hi there. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service, wealth management firm headquartered… Read More

Wrong on Inflation

chart- continuously plummeting inflation

With a loose monetary policy over the past 4.5 years, the fears of inflation have been touted endlessly.

I, too, have warned about inflation over the years.

But where is it? Is the lack of hyperinflation one of the biggest, most incorrect predictions of the past 5 years?

It certainly is.

With the printing presses going, why hasn’t there been the expected inflation?

Perhaps a combination of an oil boom, slow growth in Europe, ongoing reduction in household debt, etc.

For… Read More

Rail Traffic Continues to Soften

Rail traffic chart

One of the mostly closely watched barometers for Warren Buffett is the level of rail traffic.

 He believes that it’s a leading indication of how much productivity is going to happen in the future as goods are transferred across the U.S.

 It’s currently still in traditional “expansion” territory, but it’s been weakening over the past year or so.

 In my opinion, it’s reflecting the ho-hum economy we’ve all been experiencing. I’ll continue to watch it closely, as one of the… Read More