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Archive for the ‘Market Commentary’ Category

Current Market Conditions

As volatility has increased in the past 3 weeks, I want to keep you well informed of my thoughts.

Are the past weeks normal, have the fundamentals changed, or is this the canary in the coal mine we’ve been waiting for?

These questions are answered in my video.

Hi, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service wealth management firm, headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.

I last spoke to you a couple of weeks ago and at that time, I talked about the third quarter… Read More

What Are the Odds We’re Heading for Another Crash

what are the odds

 

 

 

 

 

 

The magnitude of loss greater than 20% or 30% is actually quite unusual, but 10% happens often, even if it hasn’t happened since 2011.

When it happens it doesn’t feel very good, but it’s not necessarily a prelude to bigger declines, so we shouldn’t jump to that conclusion.

Here’s a full article with more discussion about the odds.

 

The Deficit is Down Because the Private Sector is Up

us gov tax receipts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The deficit is the difference between tax receipts (inputs) and tax expenditures (outputs).  The deficit has been declining over the past few years, but it’s not due to decreased expenditures, it’s due to increased revenues.

The private sector has been healing itself over the past 5 years, and it shows with the tax revenue.

 

The Big Picture

The 3rd Quarter was schizophrenic, with most of the unmanaged US and international stock indexes negative, bonds (in general) slightly positive, and with tons of volatility across the board.

Particularly in the past few weeks, every day there seems to be triple digit swings in the Dow, and lots of negative news (ISIS, Ebola, etc.).

Now is the time when we have to remember the big picture and what we as investors are striving towards.  It is the time when emotions can be high, but we need to keep a steady hand and focus. … Read More

Risk of Third German Recession Pressures Europe

Tensions with Russia, slowing global growth and falling consumer confidence mean the region’s biggest economy struggled to grow in the past 3 months, and may turn out to have shrunk for a 2nd quarter running. Merkel

Across the Eurozone as a whole, recently released data showed that economic sentiment dipped in September for a 4th month in a row.

Questions abound about whether this could lead into a vicious circle of falling prices and stagnation.

I’ll continue to watch this closely and make… Read More

2nd Quarter and into the Rest of the Year

The 2nd quarter is now behind us, and the momentum is with us!  Will recent global political events derail the positive trend?

Good question, and one I answer in the below video

Transcript:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service, wealth management firm headquarters right here in Boulder, Colorado. Today, I want to talk about the second quarter review. Really kind of the first half of the year review and then a third quarter preview which really turns into the rest… Read More

Warren Buffet’s Biggest Losses

2014 06 25 Berkshire Hathaway- losses since 1980

When you hear 9 – 10% in the stock market, you must remember that those returns contain every single type of market environment.

Warren Buffet is one of the most successful investors ever, and he still has declines at some point.  But, he has the right behaviors ingrained in him to “be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”.

No one likes declines, but they are part of a full market cycle.  When constructing a

Investing in Previous Year Winners

One thing to watch out for is assuming the future will reflect the past. As a matter of fact, that whole “past performance is no guarantee of future result” is actually true.

So, looking at history over the past 14 to 15 years, what would happen with your returns and volatility if you had invested for the year based on the best asset class for the prior year?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Therefore, you should watch my video.

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management… Read More

Volatility is Up

volatilityThe unmanaged stock market indexes are experiencing much more volatility this year compared to last.

Now is the time a well balanced portfolio really shows it’s worth.

Market Moves – Full Article

First Quarter and into the Rest of the Year

The first quarter is now behind us, but all the excitement happened in the first week of April!

After reaching new highs, the unmanaged stock market indexes pulled back a little bit, so the question we have to ask ourselves is “what does this mean for the rest of the year?”.

Good question, and one I answer in the below video:

 

Hi, this is Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado, and today I want to talk about… Read More

January Volatility

In my video today, I discuss the most recent January volatility in the stock markets.

Does the worst January in the Dow since 2009 mean we need to change our strategy?

Is there any change I recommend since my last video about 3 weeks ago?

For the answer to these questions, listen to my 4 minute video.

Don’t be a Slave to History

20 year average annual return

Twelve months ago, the 5 year return for the S&P would have covered 2008 – 2012, for a +1.66% annual return (including reinvested dividends). Today and one year later, because a bad year dropped off (2008) and is replaced by a good year (2013), the 5 year annualized return jumps up to +17.94%.

Let’s look at another longer term statistic. A year ago, the 20 year annualized S&P 500 return was +8.22% a year vs. +8.50% a year for long term Treasuries… Read More

One Year Ends and Another Begins

2013 was a great year for stocks/equities in general, and pretty bad for bonds. If only we could rewind the year and go 100% in stocks.

But would that be wise? Sure, in hindsight and only since we know how it turns out. But investing doesn’t work that way. We work in the unknown, crafting a disciplined investment strategy that helps a person reach their goals.

I have a full 2013 recap and 2014 thoughts in my video, so I highly recommend you watch it.

 

Hi there, Mike Brady… Read More

Wrong Lessons from 2013

In my video today, I discuss what I’m hoping people don’t take away from 2013.

Diversification? What that?

For a full discussion of this, listen to my video.

Transcript:

Hi there, Michael Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.

Today, I want to talk to about the lessons of 2013. I know it is only mid-December but we’ve got 11 1/2 months and I think it’s close enough. More than anything, I want to talk about the lessons I’m hoping investors… Read More

Current Market Situation

There is so much in the news right now, most of it about the impending debt ceiling crisis. Most of what you read, hear, and watch is sensationalized (in my opinion), so in this quarter’s video I basically dissect where we are right now, paying attention to the data points that I think are relevant.

Being the contrarian I am, I also address some common, assumed facts or assumptions that I simply don’t believe.

A longer than normal video, but let me conclude by saying I’m still optimistic, and not freaked out (unlike pundits… Read More

Federal Reserve Comments in 2013

federal reserve comments in 2013

As I mention in my video, the price of bonds (in general) have decreased causing yields to increase. The above graph shows comments from the Fed which has led so many people to have speculated they’d cut back on the bond buy back.

As of last month, the Fed Chairman has stated the bond buy back will stay in place.

For more graphs and a discussion, here’s the full article.

Is it time to run for the hills?

In my video today, I ask the question “is it time to run for the hills, or jump off the ledge?” because of the recent increased volatility and decline in the markets.

Let me give you the short answer: no.

The bond correction was an over reaction, and the most recent equity dip is not a precursor to some big decline. At least not in my opinion.

For a full discussion of this, listen to my short video where I expand on these ideas.

 

Hi there, it’s… Read More

Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?

9-5-13 emerging markets graph

I think highly of Mark Mobius, and he makes a strong argument that emerging markets, while they’ve had some correction this year, is still a great place to invest.

I happen to agree with him.

It’s a great article, so be sure to click and read.

Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?

&nbsp… Read More

Revised GDP rises to 2.5%

9-5-13 GDP graph

The numbers are increased mainly due to net trade numbers being positive, while personal consumption and fixed investments declined.

If the positive net trade numbers continue, this is very good for us.

The decrease in personal consumption and fixed investments is a negative for the U.S.

Stay tuned to the next publication of the numbers as I’ll be tracking the trends.

Full Article

5% 30 Year Mortgages

According to Lou Barnes, a local mortgage broker who is frequently quo9-5-13 mortgage graphted in the national press, when the 10 year treasury yield hits about 3.33%, we’ll be back to 5% 30 year mortgages.

Right now, the 10 year treasury is around 2.775%, up about 1.1% in just a few months.  However, it has stabilized.

The big question those in the investing world are asking is whether the yield will continue up, or go back down.

If you watch my video, you’ll see that I believe… Read More