There is so much in the news right now, most of it about the impending debt ceiling crisis. Most of what you read, hear, and watch is sensationalized (in my opinion), so in this quarter’s video I basically dissect where we are right now, paying attention to the data points that I think are relevant.
Being the contrarian I am, I also address some common, assumed facts or assumptions that I simply don’t believe.
A longer than normal video, but let me conclude by saying I’m still optimistic, and not freaked out (unlike pundits… Read More
As I mention in my video, the price of bonds (in general) have decreased causing yields to increase. The above graph shows comments from the Fed which has led so many people to have speculated they’d cut back on the bond buy back.
As of last month, the Fed Chairman has stated the bond buy back will stay in place.
For more graphs and a discussion, here’s the full article.
In my video today, I ask the question “is it time to run for the hills, or jump off the ledge?” because of the recent increased volatility and decline in the markets.
Let me give you the short answer: no.
The bond correction was an over reaction, and the most recent equity dip is not a precursor to some big decline. At least not in my opinion.
For a full discussion of this, listen to my short video where I expand on these ideas.
Hi there, it’s… Read More
The numbers are increased mainly due to net trade numbers being positive, while personal consumption and fixed investments declined.
If the positive net trade numbers continue, this is very good for us.
The decrease in personal consumption and fixed investments is a negative for the U.S.
Stay tuned to the next publication of the numbers as I’ll be tracking the trends.
Right now, the 10 year treasury is around 2.775%, up about 1.1% in just a few months. However, it has stabilized.
The big question those in the investing world are asking is whether the yield will continue up, or go back down.
If you watch my video, you’ll see that I believe… Read More
The second quarter was a tough quarter, particularly at the end. Continued emphasis on government fiscal and monetary policies, both here and abroad, played havoc with bond, stock, and precious metal investors. It’s enough to make my hair turn white!
Click on my video to get my thoughts on the past quarter (over-reaction) and the upcoming one. The year is not over!
Hello, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado. I’m here for my second quarter review and… Read More
Basically it’s saying there’s validity to Warren Buffet’s phrase “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”
Of course, there were notable exceptions to the rule, but an interesting article and study nonetheless.
I think of today’s video as my “mid-newsletter” thoughts, as I want to be timely in my communication with you.
The stock and bond markets have been more prominent in the news lately, and I want to share with you my analysis.
So, is it jumping off the ledge time, or is this just a part of the cyclical nature of the markets?
Watch my video to find out my opinion.
Hi there. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service, wealth management firm headquartered… Read More
With a loose monetary policy over the past 4.5 years, the fears of inflation have been touted endlessly.
I, too, have warned about inflation over the years.
But where is it? Is the lack of hyperinflation one of the biggest, most incorrect predictions of the past 5 years?
It certainly is.
With the printing presses going, why hasn’t there been the expected inflation?
Perhaps a combination of an oil boom, slow growth in Europe, ongoing reduction in household debt, etc.
For… Read More
One of the mostly closely watched barometers for Warren Buffett is the level of rail traffic.
He believes that it’s a leading indication of how much productivity is going to happen in the future as goods are transferred across the U.S.
It’s currently still in traditional “expansion” territory, but it’s been weakening over the past year or so.
In my opinion, it’s reflecting the ho-hum economy we’ve all been experiencing. I’ll continue to watch it closely, as one of the… Read More
Unemployment in Europe is at an all time high.
Inflation has fallen to 1.2%
Will Europe cut rates and cause a stimulus?
I think they will.
How does this help us? It hopefully will slow the decline that is Europe, even if it’s not going to turn everything around long term until Europe gets the relationship between their debt relative to their GDP in order.
The first quarter was a strong quarter, particularly for the unmanaged US stock market indexes.
But what is going on in Europe? What might the unintended consequences be of the Cypriot banking issues?
I talk about all of this in my video, so I highly encourage you to take a few minutes and listen to my thoughts.
Graphs referenced in the video: Full Graphs
Good morning. Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full service wealth management firm here in Boulder, Colorado… Read More
Out with the old and in with the new!
2012 had some ups and downs, but ended up in the positive territory for the un-managed stock market indexes.
My outlook for 2013 is not quite as optimistic as it’s been the past few years for a number of reasons.
In my video, I recap 2012, provide some thoughts on 2013, and discuss my philosophy how different strategies should be considered going forward.
Good morning! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a full-service, comprehensive wealth… Read More
You’re probably hearing a lot about the Fiscal Cliff, and may be wondering
• What does it really mean?
• What are the implications?
• What can, or should, I do?
In order to answer these questions, I have a slightly longer than usual video this week (about 10 minutes), but one of the best ones I’ve done in a while (if I do say so myself).
This is a very timely subect, and you’ll be hearing about the Fiscal Cliff in all the media for the next month or so. Now is your chance… Read More
In October, 276 (75%) of the 366 markets showed monthly home value appreciation, and 228 (62%) of the 366 markets saw annual home value appreciation.
Among the top 30 metros, 29 experienced monthly home value appreciation and 26 saw annual increases.
This is a great sign, and fills me with optimism going forward. This is a good leading indicator for a sustained recovery.
There are two measures of jobs in my mind: Quantitative and Qualitative.
I’m pleased that slowly the quantity of jobs seems to be coming back, although anemic, but the quality of those jobs is still lacking.
I think we’re in the midst of a major re-adjustment in our country, about the type and quantity of jobs we have to offer.
I am not pessimistic in any way, and feel the creativity and entrepreneurial spirit is better here… Read More
The 3rd quarter was good, essentially across the board.
However, I’m concerned about some leading indicators that are slowing and indicating a tough economy ahead (notably Chicago PMI) and I’m factoring that in.
That being said, I’m still looking for a nice finish to the year, but watching this next quarter very closely.
If it’s weak, then I’m concerned about 2013.
I’ll keep you posted throughout the quarter, but watch my video now to get my current thoughts… Read More
August 20th is a pivotal date when 3.8 billion Euros are due from Greece to the European Central Bank.
The IMF is saying that if this isn’t paid, they’ll stop loaning money to Greece.
Once the IMF is done with Greece, will the European Monetary Union be far behind?
In my opinion, Greece will exit the Euro sooner rather than later, and this is good for the long term strength of the Euro.
How will this affect our US markets? Always the big question… Read More