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Archive for the ‘Market Commentary’ Category

Do You Have an Investor or Trader Mindset

The last month has been interesting to say the least.  This is a wonderful time to ask yourself

Are you an Investor or a Trader?

The mindsets are completely different, leading to different behaviors, and different outcomes.

I ask this question in my video this month, talk about the differences, and let you decide by the end which of the two you are.

So, what do you think?  Are you an Investor or a Trader?

Click on the video

Transcript:

Hi there.  Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth… Read More

Why the Stock Market is Obsessed with Oil

Oil

The S&P 500 is now almost perfectly correlated to the price of oil, which is interesting because over the past decade they’ve had virtually no correlation.

Energy only makes up 3% of the economy.

So why the focus?

  • Falling prices often signal softness in demand, which precedes an economic slowdown.  But, most believe this is a supply glut, not weakened demand
  • Cheap oil is causing US Oil production to cool off, hurting energy companies and

U.S. Stocks Were Positive 73% of the Time

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With an unmanaged stock market index going back to 1926, 73% of the time U.S. Stocks were positive. When you add in the “slightly negative” column of declines from 0 to 10%, that adds up to about 87% positive or slightly negative.

The future could absolutely be different, and you have to ensure it fits with your individual goals.… Read More

5 Questions at the end of 2015

“I want you to be everything that’s you, deep at the center of your being” — Confucius

This is my year end video, and it is one of the most important I’ve done in some time.  It is a reminder of some of the basics and foundations of investing!

I answer 5 questions that investors are probably asking themselves right about now

  1. What happened in 2015?
  2. Is this normal?
  3. Do I have the right investments?
  4. Will next year (2016) be different?
  5. What should I do?

The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash go Nowhere

DJIAPlease watch my video on the next page as it provides the multi-year context for 2015.

Markets go 3 directions – up, down, sideways.  This year was a “pause” year of basically sideways, and in the multi-year look, something that happens periodically but frustrating nonetheless.

Click here for the full article

The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere

Why the Bull Market in Stocks Isn’t Dead Yet

151218183150-bull-staring-down-780x439There are endless things to worry about. As a matter of fact, in my 24 years of being in business, I can’t remember a year when I wasn’t worried about something.

However, you’ve got to keep that in check. As the graph below in the next article will show, if you are constantly running from the bad years, historically you’ve missed out on the vast majority that are positive.

I think 2016 will be another one of those positive years, but if I’m… Read More

U.S. Stocks were positive 73% of the Time

pozWith an unmanaged stock market index going back to 1926, 73% of the time U.S. Stocks were positive. When you add in the “slightly negative” column of declines from 0 to 10%, that adds up to about 87% positive or slightly negative.

The future could absolutely be different, and you have to ensure it fits with your individual goals.… Read More

Investments are a Journey

“Every journey in life has a destination.” — Ken Poirot

In today’s video, I share a conversation I had with a friend of mine, who is a surgeon.  How does he handle things when the surgery outcome is unknown, and in the middle of the operation if things go awry?  How do you stay calm?

What he deals with on a daily basis is the same as investments and your financial plan.  How do we keep our eyes on the big picture?  What is normal, and how do we stay calm?

One… Read More

The Most Bullish Chart has a Stock Market Crash in the Middle of It

cotd-secular-bull-marketsIt is normal for there to be corrections with a generally bullish market, which we’ve been in for 6 years now and I believe will continue.

The chart above does NOT mean our RED line will continue, as it could be the end of the bullish trend.  I don’t think so, but it’s possible.  I’ve made the argument many many times why I’ve come to my conclusion (see previous newsletters and videos going back 2 to 3 years).

We have 3 months left in the year, but more… Read More

China?

I still owe you a video on China, and how I think it’s going to impact things.

It’s tough in that we’ve never had such a large player be so guarded in it’s data.

Economists for now are continuing to be optimistic about China, predicting a positive growth for 2015 even though the markets and their currency have gone haywire.

More to come next few weeks as I complete my analysis and video on China.

Full Article

Oil Impact

“Life is Really Simple–but We Insist on Making it Complicated” – Confucius

Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to talk about the reasons given for the market correction
1.  Plunging Oil
2.  China
3.  Disappointing Profits
4.  Trading Milestone (200 Day Moving Average)
5.  Rate Jitters

Today I focus on Oil, as it’s declined from approximately $60 in June to $40 today.  What is that indicative of, and is that a long term benefit or detriment for the economy?

I say it’s a long term benefit, and make such an argument in my video… Read More

The Most Bullish Chart has a Stock Market Crash in the Middle of It

cotd-secular-bull-markets

It is normal for there to be corrections with a generally bullish market, which we’ve been in for 6 years now and I believe will continue.

The chart above does NOT mean our RED line will continue, as it could be the end of the bullish trend.  I don’t think so, but it’s possible.  I’ve made the argument many many times why I’ve come to my conclusion (see previous newsletters and videos going back 2 to 3 years).

We have 4 months left in the… Read More

Time Horizon, Plan, Conviction

“I never said it’d be easy-I only said it’d be worth it”–Mae West.

That’s what I think about when I think about investments.

Yes, the unmanaged stock market indexes are making the news, but the whole reason we have a plan, discuss the time horizon, and determine our conviction is because these events happen. Always have, and always will.

History has shown us that those who ignore and then over-react are the ones most hurt. I don’t do that, and I wouldn’t want any of my readers to do that either.… Read More

The Cost of Getting Scared Out of Stocks in 1998

sp1998-480x288

Emerging Markets cratered 40%.  Commodities fell over 25%.  The dollar rallied over 20%.  Asia looked like it was falling apart.  The US Stock Market fell 18%.

I’m not taking about now, I’m talking about 1998.  Right before the US had the best GDP growth rate of the recovery.

Things that appear so obvious are not always so.

The Cost of Getting Scared Out of Stocks in 1998

Why Stocks are Tumbling 6 Years into the Bull Market

DJIA

The largest weekly decline since 2011, leaving the unmanaged stock market indexes close to “correction” territory.

What are the reasons?   China, Oil, Disappointing Profits, 200 Day Moving Average, and Interest Rates.

In a follow up video this week, I’ll start to dissect each and give you my opinion about the long term effect of each.

I like to look at long term effects, not short term gyrations.  The fluctuations have always been there, and always will be.

Full Article: Why

Mid-Year Check-In

While there have been some exciting one day swings in the unmanaged stock market indexes so far this year, it’s actually been relatively calm, without big 5% and 10% weekly and monthly swings that we see periodically in the markets.

As of the end of the 2nd quarter, most major unmanaged indexes were about break even.

In my video, I talk about the impact Greece and China may have on the markets going forward, and how the potential interest rate hike in September may affect things.  I’m not gloom and doom, so if you’re… Read More

First Quarter Review / Current Thoughts

The first quarter was a great reaffirmation that diversification can be your friend. US Large company indexes lagged, but middle and small companies did better. US Bonds did well (in general), as did international stocks.

While diversification does not guarantee a positive return in a generally declining market, my experience is that it does tend to “buffer” some of the returns so you can stay with the plan that works for you.

In my video, I review the past quarter and continue my theme about what I’m watching to come to a “health” conclusion… Read More

One U.S. Dollar Could Soon Equal One Euro

The US Dollar is looking pretty mighty these days

Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. dollar will catch up to the Euro and may even be equal by the end of the year. euro to dollar

This is just one outcome of a resurgent America in comparison to the European Monetary countries that are having all kinds of difficulty.  While we ended our bond buying program, they’re just about to start.

This is good news for US travelers to Europe but bad news for… Read More

2014 Review – 2015 Preview

2014 is now over, and a new year is in front of us.

In my video (click on the image below), I briefly do a recap on 2014, and then lay out my arguments for a long term approach, diversification, and reasons why I think being fully invested is wise, particularly as I continue to be optimistic  for the foreseeable future.

Click on the video below for 10 minutes of my thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry9OBSeF5O4&feature=youtu.be

 

Hi there! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management: a comprehensive, full-service, wealth management firm headquartered right here in… Read More

Russian Ruble Crisis: Don’t Panic like it’s 1998

I remember the 1998 Russian crisis well.  It was near the end of the summer, and threatened to put a real damper on an otherwise excellent stock market year.   The “Moscow meltdown” bled over the S&P 500, which plunged 20%.Russia 98-14

There are reasons  1998 and today are different

  1. Tough sanction in place have somewhat isolated Western investors
  2. Russia has a war chest of $416 billion in currency reserves today, versus very little in 1998
  3. Russia’s currency is free floating, and not pegged to