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Archive for the ‘Market Commentary’ Category

Oil Impact

“Life is Really Simple–but We Insist on Making it Complicated” – Confucius

Over the next couple of weeks I’m going to talk about the reasons given for the market correction
1.  Plunging Oil
2.  China
3.  Disappointing Profits
4.  Trading Milestone (200 Day Moving Average)
5.  Rate Jitters

Today I focus on Oil, as it’s declined from approximately $60 in June to $40 today.  What is that indicative of, and is that a long term benefit or detriment for the economy?

I say it’s a long term benefit, and make such an argument in my video… Read More

The Most Bullish Chart has a Stock Market Crash in the Middle of It

cotd-secular-bull-markets

It is normal for there to be corrections with a generally bullish market, which we’ve been in for 6 years now and I believe will continue.

The chart above does NOT mean our RED line will continue, as it could be the end of the bullish trend.  I don’t think so, but it’s possible.  I’ve made the argument many many times why I’ve come to my conclusion (see previous newsletters and videos going back 2 to 3 years).

We have 4 months left in the… Read More

Time Horizon, Plan, Conviction

“I never said it’d be easy-I only said it’d be worth it”–Mae West.

That’s what I think about when I think about investments.

Yes, the unmanaged stock market indexes are making the news, but the whole reason we have a plan, discuss the time horizon, and determine our conviction is because these events happen. Always have, and always will.

History has shown us that those who ignore and then over-react are the ones most hurt. I don’t do that, and I wouldn’t want any of my readers to do that either.… Read More

The Cost of Getting Scared Out of Stocks in 1998

sp1998-480x288

Emerging Markets cratered 40%.  Commodities fell over 25%.  The dollar rallied over 20%.  Asia looked like it was falling apart.  The US Stock Market fell 18%.

I’m not taking about now, I’m talking about 1998.  Right before the US had the best GDP growth rate of the recovery.

Things that appear so obvious are not always so.

The Cost of Getting Scared Out of Stocks in 1998

Why Stocks are Tumbling 6 Years into the Bull Market

DJIA

The largest weekly decline since 2011, leaving the unmanaged stock market indexes close to “correction” territory.

What are the reasons?   China, Oil, Disappointing Profits, 200 Day Moving Average, and Interest Rates.

In a follow up video this week, I’ll start to dissect each and give you my opinion about the long term effect of each.

I like to look at long term effects, not short term gyrations.  The fluctuations have always been there, and always will be.

Full Article: Why

Mid-Year Check-In

While there have been some exciting one day swings in the unmanaged stock market indexes so far this year, it’s actually been relatively calm, without big 5% and 10% weekly and monthly swings that we see periodically in the markets.

As of the end of the 2nd quarter, most major unmanaged indexes were about break even.

In my video, I talk about the impact Greece and China may have on the markets going forward, and how the potential interest rate hike in September may affect things.  I’m not gloom and doom, so if you’re… Read More

First Quarter Review / Current Thoughts

The first quarter was a great reaffirmation that diversification can be your friend. US Large company indexes lagged, but middle and small companies did better. US Bonds did well (in general), as did international stocks.

While diversification does not guarantee a positive return in a generally declining market, my experience is that it does tend to “buffer” some of the returns so you can stay with the plan that works for you.

In my video, I review the past quarter and continue my theme about what I’m watching to come to a “health” conclusion… Read More

One U.S. Dollar Could Soon Equal One Euro

The US Dollar is looking pretty mighty these days

Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. dollar will catch up to the Euro and may even be equal by the end of the year. euro to dollar

This is just one outcome of a resurgent America in comparison to the European Monetary countries that are having all kinds of difficulty.  While we ended our bond buying program, they’re just about to start.

This is good news for US travelers to Europe but bad news for… Read More

2014 Review – 2015 Preview

2014 is now over, and a new year is in front of us.

In my video (click on the image below), I briefly do a recap on 2014, and then lay out my arguments for a long term approach, diversification, and reasons why I think being fully invested is wise, particularly as I continue to be optimistic  for the foreseeable future.

Click on the video below for 10 minutes of my thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry9OBSeF5O4&feature=youtu.be

 

Hi there! Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management: a comprehensive, full-service, wealth management firm headquartered right here in… Read More

Russian Ruble Crisis: Don’t Panic like it’s 1998

I remember the 1998 Russian crisis well.  It was near the end of the summer, and threatened to put a real damper on an otherwise excellent stock market year.   The “Moscow meltdown” bled over the S&P 500, which plunged 20%.Russia 98-14

There are reasons  1998 and today are different

  1. Tough sanction in place have somewhat isolated Western investors
  2. Russia has a war chest of $416 billion in currency reserves today, versus very little in 1998
  3. Russia’s currency is free floating, and not pegged to

Bullish to Bearish Indicators

I’ve mentioned all year long that I’m bullish and optimistic for the foreseeable future, and until data tells me something else, that’s where I remain.

However, what would change my opinion?  What are the data that I look at, and how would they need to change in order for my opinion to change?

Good question, and one I address in this issue’s video:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive full-service wealth management firm headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.

The main topic for… Read More

History is an Outline, not a Blueprint

Falling oil prices and collapsing exchange rates do not mean that it’s 1998 again.   sign posts past and future

There’s an old adage that “economists have predicted 17 of the last 3 recessions”.

History is an outline, a guide, but there’s a reason we disclaim “past performance is no guarantee of future results”.  It should be modified to say “past history does not mean it will repeat itself here again”.

 

History is an Outline, not a Blueprint 

Current Market Conditions

As volatility has increased in the past 3 weeks, I want to keep you well informed of my thoughts.

Are the past weeks normal, have the fundamentals changed, or is this the canary in the coal mine we’ve been waiting for?

These questions are answered in my video.

Hi, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service wealth management firm, headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.

I last spoke to you a couple of weeks ago and at that time, I talked about the third quarter… Read More

What Are the Odds We’re Heading for Another Crash

what are the odds

 

 

 

 

 

 

The magnitude of loss greater than 20% or 30% is actually quite unusual, but 10% happens often, even if it hasn’t happened since 2011.

When it happens it doesn’t feel very good, but it’s not necessarily a prelude to bigger declines, so we shouldn’t jump to that conclusion.

Here’s a full article with more discussion about the odds.

 

The Deficit is Down Because the Private Sector is Up

us gov tax receipts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The deficit is the difference between tax receipts (inputs) and tax expenditures (outputs).  The deficit has been declining over the past few years, but it’s not due to decreased expenditures, it’s due to increased revenues.

The private sector has been healing itself over the past 5 years, and it shows with the tax revenue.

 

The Big Picture

The 3rd Quarter was schizophrenic, with most of the unmanaged US and international stock indexes negative, bonds (in general) slightly positive, and with tons of volatility across the board.

Particularly in the past few weeks, every day there seems to be triple digit swings in the Dow, and lots of negative news (ISIS, Ebola, etc.).

Now is the time when we have to remember the big picture and what we as investors are striving towards.  It is the time when emotions can be high, but we need to keep a steady hand and focus. … Read More

Risk of Third German Recession Pressures Europe

Tensions with Russia, slowing global growth and falling consumer confidence mean the region’s biggest economy struggled to grow in the past 3 months, and may turn out to have shrunk for a 2nd quarter running. Merkel

Across the Eurozone as a whole, recently released data showed that economic sentiment dipped in September for a 4th month in a row.

Questions abound about whether this could lead into a vicious circle of falling prices and stagnation.

I’ll continue to watch this closely and make… Read More

2nd Quarter and into the Rest of the Year

The 2nd quarter is now behind us, and the momentum is with us!  Will recent global political events derail the positive trend?

Good question, and one I answer in the below video

Transcript:

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service, wealth management firm headquarters right here in Boulder, Colorado. Today, I want to talk about the second quarter review. Really kind of the first half of the year review and then a third quarter preview which really turns into the rest… Read More

Warren Buffet’s Biggest Losses

2014 06 25 Berkshire Hathaway- losses since 1980

When you hear 9 – 10% in the stock market, you must remember that those returns contain every single type of market environment.

Warren Buffet is one of the most successful investors ever, and he still has declines at some point.  But, he has the right behaviors ingrained in him to “be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”.

No one likes declines, but they are part of a full market cycle.  When constructing a

Investing in Previous Year Winners

One thing to watch out for is assuming the future will reflect the past. As a matter of fact, that whole “past performance is no guarantee of future result” is actually true.

So, looking at history over the past 14 to 15 years, what would happen with your returns and volatility if you had invested for the year based on the best asset class for the prior year?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Therefore, you should watch my video.

Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management… Read More