Archive for the ‘Bonds’ Category
A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis
Posted on October 28th, 2011 by GWM
By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
Greek Bond Yields Surge
Posted on August 26th, 2011 by GWM
That might sound good, but what it really means is that the prices are plunging.
Stay away from Greece and watch Europe closely.
Greek Bond Yields Surge – Link
 … Read More
Who Has AAA Rating?
Posted on August 8th, 2011 by GWM
Municipals to be Downgraded?
Posted on August 8th, 2011 by GWM
One of the effects of a US Government downgrade is a municipal downgrade to follow.
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the past few years, you know I’ve advised you to watch your municipal holdings closely if you have any at all.
The free (relatively) capital market ultimately determines the cost municipals will have to pay to borrow money.
7,000 Muni Bonds at Risk of Automatic Downgrade
Posted on July 27th, 2011 by GWM
If the US Gov’t is downgraded (I argue when not if) then 7,000 municipal bonds will be automatically downgraed as well. At least according to Moody’s.
This really hurts retirees as they’re the largest part of this market.
US Government Bonds Downgraded from AAA to AA by German Rating Agency
Posted on June 15th, 2011 by GWM
One of the big drags on the economy in the coming years will be our fiscal deficits and budget problems.
I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).
This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More
It’s not a Banking Problem
Posted on May 25th, 2011 by GWM
T
his article is good because it talks about Household and Consumer Debt as the underlying problem with our financial problems, not the banking regulations.
I happen to agree personal consumer debt has been a huge problem for our country and will continue to be a major factor in the next crisis.
What can you do?
Get your personal debt under control and as low as possible. If you need help with strategies around this, please let me know me.
Time to Buy Municipals?
Posted on April 20th, 2011 by GWM
I’
ve been negative on the finances of state and local governments for some time, and continue to believe it will get worse before it gets better.
This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.
He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.
I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.
 … Read More
Bumpy Ride for Treasuries
Posted on April 6th, 2011 by GWM
B
onds go up and down in value based on interest rates, credit quality, and simple supply/demand.
The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.
Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More
Who Will Buy the Bonds?
Posted on March 9th, 2011 by GWM
Yo
u’ll see me in the coming months talk about the bond markets, particularly as the Quantitative Easing (QE2) comes to a close this summer.
We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.
With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.
I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More
S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA-
Posted on February 9th, 2011 by GWM
J
apan has been in a continued recession for the past 20 years.
The deficit levels of the Japan government are among the highest of the developed countries, and expected to increase in the coming years.
This is not good news for Japan. As the rating decreases, the extra premium paid to borrow money goes up. So, a 3% cost of borrow might increase to 4%.
Anyway, this is something to watch as the United States deficit to GDP is increasing rapidly.
Just When You Thought the Euro Was Out
Posted on February 9th, 2011 by GWM
Yo
u’ve been reading my newsletters and saying “boy, that Mike Brady knows everything”. That may be true, but it’s good to remember the markets have a mind of their own.
The Euro has rallied against other currencies recently.
Do I think this is a short term rally? Yes. Do I think the Euro and Europe in general still have long term problems? Yes.
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THE EURO WAS OUT
Muni Fund Outflows
Posted on February 2nd, 2011 by GWM
I
f you’ve been listening to my videos and reading my newsletter, you are minimally affected by the Municipal Bond declines over the past 2 months.
Yeah!
Outflows are huge right now and I anticipate they will continue while states determine how to balance their budgets.
To do: Continue to avoid Municipal Bonds unless you’ve really done your homework
Municipal Revenues Rebound
Posted on February 2nd, 2011 by GWM
2
008 and 2009 were devastating to state revenue, so in comparison to those hard years, 2010 showed an increase AS A PERCENTAGE from the previous year.
Revenues are still way down, and without the big influx from stimulus money the worst is yet to come.
What is your Interest Rate Sensitivity?
Posted on December 2nd, 2010 by GWM
What is your interest rate sensitivity? If you reply “what does that mean”, then you definitely need to listen to my video below.
I talk about a quick and dirty way to estimate how a Rising Interest Rate will negatively effect your particular bonds and/or bond funds… Read More
Predictions Coming True
Posted on December 2nd, 2010 by GWM
If you’ve been reading my blog for the past 2 years you’ve been hearing me talk about the slow disaster that is Europe and our municipal governments.
We’re now seeing the worst falls in Municipals since Lehman’s collapse back in September 2008. Ouch! I also say that the worst is before us, not behind.
To do: Watch your municipal holdings and know what your exposure is!
Ireland has a bailout (thank you EU and IMF) and now the yields for Portugal, Spain, and Italy are going… Read More
What’s Wrong with Muni Bonds? Everything
Posted on November 17th, 2010 by GWM
I’ve been warning about the municipal bond market for some time now.
I think the problems are starting to hit and 2011 will be a big year of reckoning.
Look at the chart to the right. Ugly.
Why is this happening?
There’s the looming end of the Build America Bonds program, questions about how state and local governments will manage their debts, and the impact of huge pension and health care obligations that seem unsustainable.
Deleverage? No, Default!
Posted on September 23rd, 2010 by GWM
Many articles have been written in the past year about the decline in U.S. Household Debt.
This is something to celebrate, right? People are paying off their debt, right?
Wrong. It is almost scary how closely the decline in US Household debt correlates with the charge-offs of mortgage and consumer loans.
People are defaulting, not paying them off.
 … Read More
Greece – The Land of Zeus
Posted on September 15th, 2010 by GWM
I’ve been pretty negative over the past year on Greece and all of Europe.
However, there are reasons to be optimistic about Greece and that it can rise from it’s difficult situation.
Click for a discussion about Greeks Bearing Bonds.
 … Read More
Taxpayers on the Hook for $3 Trillion in Pensions
Posted on September 9th, 2010 by GWM
The reason I include this article is to reinforce my belief that Municipal Bonds are something to avoid.
State pensions are in a world of hurt, and you and I will be subsidizing them in the future. Do you think this will cause some slowdown in state revenues and resources? Of course.
 … Read More
A Spectator’s Guide to the Euro Crisis
By far the easiest and best chart I’ve seen to explain the European problem was published last weekend in the New York Times.
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
Greek Bond Yields Surge
That might sound good, but what it really means is that the prices are plunging.
Stay away from Greece and watch Europe closely.
Greek Bond Yields Surge – Link
 … Read More
Who Has AAA Rating?
Municipals to be Downgraded?
One of the effects of a US Government downgrade is a municipal downgrade to follow.
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the past few years, you know I’ve advised you to watch your municipal holdings closely if you have any at all.
The free (relatively) capital market ultimately determines the cost municipals will have to pay to borrow money.
7,000 Muni Bonds at Risk of Automatic Downgrade
If the US Gov’t is downgraded (I argue when not if) then 7,000 municipal bonds will be automatically downgraed as well. At least according to Moody’s.
This really hurts retirees as they’re the largest part of this market.
US Government Bonds Downgraded from AAA to AA by German Rating Agency
One of the big drags on the economy in the coming years will be our fiscal deficits and budget problems.
I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).
This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More
It’s not a Banking Problem
This article is good because it talks about Household and Consumer Debt as the underlying problem with our financial problems, not the banking regulations.
I happen to agree personal consumer debt has been a huge problem for our country and will continue to be a major factor in the next crisis.
What can you do?
Get your personal debt under control and as low as possible. If you need help with strategies around this, please let me know me.
Time to Buy Municipals?
I’
ve been negative on the finances of state and local governments for some time, and continue to believe it will get worse before it gets better.
This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.
He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.
I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.
 … Read More
Bumpy Ride for Treasuries
B
onds go up and down in value based on interest rates, credit quality, and simple supply/demand.
The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.
Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More
Who Will Buy the Bonds?
Yo
u’ll see me in the coming months talk about the bond markets, particularly as the Quantitative Easing (QE2) comes to a close this summer.
We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.
With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.
I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More
S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA-
J
apan has been in a continued recession for the past 20 years.
The deficit levels of the Japan government are among the highest of the developed countries, and expected to increase in the coming years.
This is not good news for Japan. As the rating decreases, the extra premium paid to borrow money goes up. So, a 3% cost of borrow might increase to 4%.
Anyway, this is something to watch as the United States deficit to GDP is increasing rapidly.
Just When You Thought the Euro Was Out
Yo
u’ve been reading my newsletters and saying “boy, that Mike Brady knows everything”. That may be true, but it’s good to remember the markets have a mind of their own.
The Euro has rallied against other currencies recently.
Do I think this is a short term rally? Yes. Do I think the Euro and Europe in general still have long term problems? Yes.
CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THE EURO WAS OUT
Muni Fund Outflows
I
f you’ve been listening to my videos and reading my newsletter, you are minimally affected by the Municipal Bond declines over the past 2 months.
Yeah!
Outflows are huge right now and I anticipate they will continue while states determine how to balance their budgets.
To do: Continue to avoid Municipal Bonds unless you’ve really done your homework
Municipal Revenues Rebound
2
008 and 2009 were devastating to state revenue, so in comparison to those hard years, 2010 showed an increase AS A PERCENTAGE from the previous year.
Revenues are still way down, and without the big influx from stimulus money the worst is yet to come.
What is your Interest Rate Sensitivity?
What is your interest rate sensitivity? If you reply “what does that mean”, then you definitely need to listen to my video below.
I talk about a quick and dirty way to estimate how a Rising Interest Rate will negatively effect your particular bonds and/or bond funds… Read More
Predictions Coming True
If you’ve been reading my blog for the past 2 years you’ve been hearing me talk about the slow disaster that is Europe and our municipal governments.
We’re now seeing the worst falls in Municipals since Lehman’s collapse back in September 2008. Ouch! I also say that the worst is before us, not behind.
To do: Watch your municipal holdings and know what your exposure is!
Ireland has a bailout (thank you EU and IMF) and now the yields for Portugal, Spain, and Italy are going… Read More
What’s Wrong with Muni Bonds? Everything
I’ve been warning about the municipal bond market for some time now.
I think the problems are starting to hit and 2011 will be a big year of reckoning.
Look at the chart to the right. Ugly.
Why is this happening?
There’s the looming end of the Build America Bonds program, questions about how state and local governments will manage their debts, and the impact of huge pension and health care obligations that seem unsustainable.
Deleverage? No, Default!
Many articles have been written in the past year about the decline in U.S. Household Debt.
This is something to celebrate, right? People are paying off their debt, right?
Wrong. It is almost scary how closely the decline in US Household debt correlates with the charge-offs of mortgage and consumer loans.
People are defaulting, not paying them off.
 … Read More
Greece – The Land of Zeus
I’ve been pretty negative over the past year on Greece and all of Europe.
However, there are reasons to be optimistic about Greece and that it can rise from it’s difficult situation.
Click for a discussion about Greeks Bearing Bonds.
 … Read More
Taxpayers on the Hook for $3 Trillion in Pensions
The reason I include this article is to reinforce my belief that Municipal Bonds are something to avoid.
State pensions are in a world of hurt, and you and I will be subsidizing them in the future. Do you think this will cause some slowdown in state revenues and resources? Of course.
 … Read More
