As volatility has increased in the past 3 weeks, I want to keep you well informed of my thoughts.
Are the past weeks normal, have the fundamentals changed, or is this the canary in the coal mine we’ve been waiting for?
These questions are answered in my video.
Hi, Mike Brady here with Generosity Wealth Management, a comprehensive, full service wealth management firm, headquartered right here in Boulder, Colorado.
I last spoke to you a couple of weeks ago and at that time, I talked about the third quarter… Read More
Pimco is a mutual and ETF firm with a huge bond fund that has been the player in that space for the past 40 years. Bill Gross founded the firm in 1971, and it is now around $2 trillion dollars under management.
Last week Bill Gross decided to leave the fund and move to Janus. This is important because of the disruption to the bond market as huge sums could (and I say could) move from one firm to another.
The bond market… Read More
A high paying bond with a lower credit rating than investment-grade corporate bonds, Treasury bonds and municipal bonds. Because of the higher risk of default, these bonds pay a higher yield than investment grade bonds.
Based on the two main credit rating agencies, high-yield bonds carry a rating below ‘BBB’ from S&P, and below ‘Baa’ from Moody’s. Bonds with ratings at or above these levels are considered investment grade. Credit ratings can be as low as ‘D’ (currently in… Read More
As I mention in my video, the price of bonds (in general) have decreased causing yields to increase. The above graph shows comments from the Fed which has led so many people to have speculated they’d cut back on the bond buy back.
As of last month, the Fed Chairman has stated the bond buy back will stay in place.
For more graphs and a discussion, here’s the full article.
If you’ve been wondering if you’re the only person confused by what all the hub bub is about, this is your opportunity to get caught up.
One of the effects of a US Government downgrade is a municipal downgrade to follow.
If you’ve been following my newsletters over the past few years, you know I’ve advised you to watch your municipal holdings closely if you have any at all.
The free (relatively) capital market ultimately determines the cost municipals will have to pay to borrow money.
If the US Gov’t is downgraded (I argue when not if) then 7,000 municipal bonds will be automatically downgraed as well. At least according to Moody’s.
This really hurts retirees as they’re the largest part of this market.
I’ll be writing this summer about the US ability (and struggles) to sell bonds and finance the debt, particularly as QE2 ends and the Chinese bubble bursts (at some point in the future).
This article talks in depth about an issue we may see more of in the future–US debt being downgraded. This is from a German, not US, rating agency, but it could be just the… Read More
I happen to agree personal consumer debt has been a huge problem for our country and will continue to be a major factor in the next crisis.
What can you do?
Get your personal debt under control and as low as possible. If you need help with strategies around this, please let me know me.
This article takes a contrarian view, particularly on the debt, which I want to present to you.
He argues there are “diamonds in the rough”, which is almost always true.
I’m still quite negative on municipals in general, but it’s good to see the other point of view.
… Read More
The first quarter was a bumpy ride for US Treasuries (as I mention in my video which you should have listened to already), and essentially ended flat to slightly negative.
Much of what will happen in the next quarter will be dependent on the ending of quantitative easing in June and whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
What to do? Stay tuned and be diversified. Too much of an… Read More
We have a huge federal deficit. We need people to buy Federal bonds to lend money to the government.
With the huge influx of money from the Fed in the past few months, foreign investors were squeezed out. Will they come back? The answer is not as simple as you’d think.
I’ll be writing more and more about this as the… Read More
The deficit levels of the Japan government are among the highest of the developed countries, and expected to increase in the coming years.
This is not good news for Japan. As the rating decreases, the extra premium paid to borrow money goes up. So, a 3% cost of borrow might increase to 4%.
Anyway, this is something to watch as the United States deficit to GDP is increasing rapidly.
The Euro has rallied against other currencies recently.
Do I think this is a short term rally? Yes. Do I think the Euro and Europe in general still have long term problems? Yes.
Outflows are huge right now and I anticipate they will continue while states determine how to balance their budgets.
To do: Continue to avoid Municipal Bonds unless you’ve really done your homework
Revenues are still way down, and without the big influx from stimulus money the worst is yet to come.
What is your interest rate sensitivity? If you reply “what does that mean”, then you definitely need to listen to my video below.
I talk about a quick and dirty way to estimate how a Rising Interest Rate will negatively effect your particular bonds and/or bond funds… Read More
We’re now seeing the worst falls in Municipals since Lehman’s collapse back in September 2008. Ouch! I also say that the worst is before us, not behind.
To do: Watch your municipal holdings and know what your exposure is!
Ireland has a bailout (thank you EU and IMF) and now the yields for Portugal, Spain, and Italy are going… Read More