Archive for December, 2011

Better Information, or Just More Information?

The year is almost over and as I prepared for this blog, I thought about a video I did last summer but never shared with you. The summer was so busy and volatile, I wanted to provide you with my current thoughts in such a tough time, so this video (which is one of my favorites) got pushed to the side. The video is about information: more information doesn’t necessarily mean better information. I remember when having more publicly available information was a competitive advantage, but with free internet news sites with up to the second information, that advantage is ... Read More

5 Worst Market Calls for 2011

Even the best can make bad calls. Warren Buffett buying Bank of America? Woops. Bill Gross betting against Treasuries? Yikes. John Corzine? John Paulson? Both very wrong in their market calls. You’ve heard me over past 3 years talk about humility and diversification. My 21 years in the business has taught me that the investment, sector, stock, etc. that I absolutely love is still the one I need to calmly and rationally buy in an amount that I’m willing to be really wrong in and cut my losses quickly if necessary. Even the best can make bad calls. Click for ... Read More

Aberrational Performance Taskforce

The Securities and Exchange Commission has a new computer system that allows them to siff out returns that are, well, too good to be true. While it’s unclear exactly how it works, it compares published numbers from hedge funds with what the computer says is average or what the underlying assets could be worth. If the numbers published are too generous, then the SEC is on the case! Click for more information  Aberrational Performance Taskforce Read More

Leading Economic Indicators Rise in November

A sign that the world’s largest economy will keep growing in early 2012. Be sure to pay attention to my video next week for my year end and 2012 thoughts.   Click for Leading Economic Indicators Rise in November   Read More

Happy Post-Christmas!

Hopefully Santa was good to you, but just in case he didn’t give you the right accessory in order to look all Boulder, Gucci has fanny packs. Yes, that’s right, Gucci.   Oh, and that Star Trek Owners’ Manual I highlighted a few months ago? I totally got it from my brother-in-law. Geeks of the world unite!   Read More

How Bad Are Things? Corporate Profitability?

Worst recession since the Great Depression? Not really, although it’s not pleasant. Unemployment is down. Good news? Yes, but not the whole picture. Corporations profitable? You bet. They have lots of cash on their balance sheets, ready to expand and redeploy at the appropriate time. These are just a few of the things I talk about in this week’s video. I include some nice graphs too, so be sure to click on the video to hear more!!! TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And today I’m thinking a little bit about corporate profitability. ... Read More

Global Manufacturing

In line with my video where I talk about the underlying numbers of the economy, one statistic that is not getting much media play is Global Manufacturing. In most countries manufacturing is contracting, except for a few select, including the United States. Hmmm, what is this telling us? This is a problem in a global economy and over the coming months I’ll continue to watch the trend. Nothing to do now but be aware of this indicator. Click here for a bigger view of the graph Read More

Employment-Population Ratio

While the official unemployment rate is decreasing, the “participation” ratio is decreasing. This means less people as a percentage of the total population are actively searching for full time work. Some of those leaving the workforce are retirees, but the graph to the right is interesting because it shows the decrease from those in prime working ages. This shows how bad the employment is, even beyond the unemployment figures. The graph below shows the huge gains women have made in the past 60 years. CLICK FOR COMMENTS & BIGGER GRAPHS ON THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO Read More

Housing is in a Depression

While I’ve mentioned in the previous blog that the economy is not quite as bad as everyone is led to believe (still not rosy though), one area that has been particular hurt is residential housing. If you’ve been following my blogs you know I’ve been saying this for quite some time. Here’s a good article where Warren Buffett says exactly that. I knew I liked that guy. CLICK FOR BUFFETT: HOUSING IS IN A DEPRESSION   Read More

What Ever Happened to Tang?

I remember when I was a kid Tang commercials were always on TV, and for me and my siblings Tang was a treat (at other kids’ houses because mom wouldn’t let us have it). I used to love it. Come to find out, it’s still a $1 billion a year business but it’s almost all overseas. Frown. I’m going to go search for some at Safeway.   Read More

Volatility, Healthcare in Retirement

It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition. I talk about this in my video. I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions. Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more! TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And I am ... Read More

Enough with Europe Already!

Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not. As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change. The question is: what does this mean for your investments? 1. I continue to caution against all things Europe 2. Constantly evaluate the allocation of your investments to ensure they’re meeting your risk ... Read More

Volatility Whipsaw

As a complement to some of the volatility I discuss in my video, you can see in the chart to the left that what goes up one month can go down the next. November was as bad as October was good. Click for Volatility Whipsaw Read More

Italy’s Crashing Money Supply

Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece. Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money). The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy. Click for Italy’s Crashing Money Supply Read More

Retro Telephone Style Cellphone Handsets

Christmas is right around the corner, so for that cell phone addict in your family who has been wanting a hands-free, I share with you the Retro Handset. Click on the picture to make someone happy this Christmas! Read More

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