The year is almost over and as I prepared for this blog, I thought about a video I did last summer but never shared with you. The summer was so busy and volatile, I wanted to provide you with my current thoughts in such a tough time, so this video (which is one of my favorites) got pushed to the side. The video is about information: more information doesn’t necessarily mean better information. I remember when having more publicly available information was a competitive advantage, but with free internet news sites with up to the second information, that advantage is ... Read More
Even the best can make bad calls. Warren Buffett buying Bank of America? Woops. Bill Gross betting against Treasuries? Yikes. John Corzine? John Paulson? Both very wrong in their market calls. You’ve heard me over past 3 years talk about humility and diversification. My 21 years in the business has taught me that the investment, sector, stock, etc. that I absolutely love is still the one I need to calmly and rationally buy in an amount that I’m willing to be really wrong in and cut my losses quickly if necessary. Even the best can make bad calls. Click for ... Read More
The Securities and Exchange Commission has a new computer system that allows them to siff out returns that are, well, too good to be true. While it’s unclear exactly how it works, it compares published numbers from hedge funds with what the computer says is average or what the underlying assets could be worth. If the numbers published are too generous, then the SEC is on the case! Click for more information Aberrational Performance Taskforce Read More
Hopefully Santa was good to you, but just in case he didn’t give you the right accessory in order to look all Boulder, Gucci has fanny packs. Yes, that’s right, Gucci. Oh, and that Star Trek Owners’ Manual I highlighted a few months ago? I totally got it from my brother-in-law. Geeks of the world unite! Read More
Worst recession since the Great Depression? Not really, although it’s not pleasant. Unemployment is down. Good news? Yes, but not the whole picture. Corporations profitable? You bet. They have lots of cash on their balance sheets, ready to expand and redeploy at the appropriate time. These are just a few of the things I talk about in this week’s video. I include some nice graphs too, so be sure to click on the video to hear more!!! TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And today I’m thinking a little bit about corporate profitability. ... Read More
In line with my video where I talk about the underlying numbers of the economy, one statistic that is not getting much media play is Global Manufacturing. In most countries manufacturing is contracting, except for a few select, including the United States. Hmmm, what is this telling us? This is a problem in a global economy and over the coming months I’ll continue to watch the trend. Nothing to do now but be aware of this indicator. Click here for a bigger view of the graph Read More
While the official unemployment rate is decreasing, the “participation” ratio is decreasing. This means less people as a percentage of the total population are actively searching for full time work. Some of those leaving the workforce are retirees, but the graph to the right is interesting because it shows the decrease from those in prime working ages. This shows how bad the employment is, even beyond the unemployment figures. The graph below shows the huge gains women have made in the past 60 years. CLICK FOR COMMENTS & BIGGER GRAPHS ON THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO Read More
While I’ve mentioned in the previous blog that the economy is not quite as bad as everyone is led to believe (still not rosy though), one area that has been particular hurt is residential housing. If you’ve been following my blogs you know I’ve been saying this for quite some time. Here’s a good article where Warren Buffett says exactly that. I knew I liked that guy. CLICK FOR BUFFETT: HOUSING IS IN A DEPRESSION Read More
I remember when I was a kid Tang commercials were always on TV, and for me and my siblings Tang was a treat (at other kids’ houses because mom wouldn’t let us have it). I used to love it. Come to find out, it’s still a $1 billion a year business but it’s almost all overseas. Frown. I’m going to go search for some at Safeway. Read More
It’s my belief the volatility we’ve seen in the past few weeks, months, and year will continue going forward. I also believe that more active management may make sense to take advantage of this market condition. I talk about this in my video. I also discuss the rising healthcare costs in your future and that I have software that will estimate what lump sum you may need upon retirement to fund your healthcare under certain assumptions. Fun stuff! Click on video to hear more! TRANSCRIPT: Hi there, Mike Brady with Generosity Wealth Management, here in Boulder, Colorado. And I am ... Read More
Europe has been, and will continue to be, the news event going forward. The effect it has upon the US is irritatingly large, whether we like it or not. As I’ve stated in previous newsletters, the European Monetary Union (Euro) will have to change drastically for Europe to weather their problems. There will also be some drastic, fundamental ways the relationship between state and citizens will change. The question is: what does this mean for your investments? 1. I continue to caution against all things Europe 2. Constantly evaluate the allocation of your investments to ensure they’re meeting your risk ... Read More
Italy is as much as financial trouble as Greece. Their money supply is drying up, and unlike in the US, they don’t have the same tools at their disposal that we have (like printing money). The chart at the right is the money supply at the Bank of Italy. Click for Italy’s Crashing Money Supply Read More
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged, price-weighted index of 30 large capitalization stocks with dividends reinvested.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“S&P 500”) is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks, with dividends reinvested, and is often used as a proxy for the stock market.
The Nasdaq Composite is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, and are reported as price return without reinvestment of dividends.
Indexes are often used as a proxy for the stock market and cannot be invested in directly.