Archive for January, 2011

Lessons from The Big Short

Every wondered what the 2008 Financial Crisis was all about? The Big Short by Michael Lewis is a good, gripping book that explains much of it. I highly recommend it. But what are some of the lessons we can take from this crisis as outlined in the book? That’s what this week’s video is about. Take 4 minutes to watch/listen to it.   Read More

You Want to be Bullish?

If you’re looking for a reason to be bullish, this chart says it all. After a period of inflation (taking place over multiple years), there is a huge cyclical bull market. The actions the Fed are taking today are inflationary, pure and simple. This bodes well for the future. CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – YOU WANT TO BE BULLISH?   Read More

4th Quarter Boulder Home Sales Drop

Locally (Boulder and Broomfield), we saw home sales drop by 11%. I just had breakfast with a real estate friend of mine and he mentioned that ranch homes, particularly in the Frasier Meadows subdivision, are some of the most rapidly moving. Who would have thought that? This is not a particularly good time to sell your home, but if you’re buying then it’s definitely in your favor. CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE Read More

Equity Borrowing Surges

Margin debt (borrowing to buy stocks) climbed by $38.2 billion in September through November according to the NYSE. This was the biggest in 3 months since mid-2007. Overall though, equity debt is much below market peak levels. This could fuel equity markets and be a nice bullish sign for us. FULL ARTICLE Read More

Longmont Community Justice Partnership

I recently became President of the Board of Directors of a local charity called Longmont Community Justice Partnership. It’s an Restorative Justice organization that brings together offenders, victims, and the community with the goal of repairing harm that has been done by an offender. This might sound “soft on crime” but experience has shown that sitting across from your victim and members of the community can be more difficult than our traditional criminal system. Offenders have a contract agreed upon by all 3 parties, 90% of offenders complete the contract, and there is only about a 10% re-offending rate (versus ... Read More

2010 Review / 2011 Preview

This week is my annual 2010 review and 2011 preview. I start out by talking about what I got right and wrong from my 2010 preview 12 months ago (you mean I’m accountable?) I then talk about reasons to be bullish countered by reasons to be bearish on 2011. I conclude my video with specific actions I’m taking with my clients. This includes * What I’m doing with my bond exposure * How I’m allocating amongst large cap, mid cap, and small cap * What I’m watching as an indicator of market health * What sector I like for a ... Read More

Year End Market Review

Nasdaq + 16.9% S&P 500 +15.06% DJIA + 11.0% First 4 months were up and down but the trend was generally up, followed by a horrible May and June, July and August up and down , with the last 4 months of the year making it a nice year end. CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE See my video in the next post for more information.   Read More

Is This Your Average Secular Bear?

In my blog I like to present both sides of the argument and then give you which side is more persuasive to me. This article states what I feel, which is that we’re in a long term bear market, but we’ll have years that are good (like 2009 and 2010). Secular bears end when the excesses that caused the prior bull are extinguished. I’m not convinced we’ve addressed the excesses yet.  CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – IS THIS YOUR AVERAGE SECULAR BEAR? Read More

Euro has 1-in-5 Chance of Lasting the Decade

Because of competitive imbalances between the members of the European Monetary Union, a British think tank believes the odds are against the Euro surviving as a single currency. Europe will be big news in the coming years and because of its economic size, it will impact the rest of the world, including the US. In 2011 I’ll keep you informed.  CLICK FOR FULL ARTICLE – EURO HAS 1 IN 5 CHANGE OF LASTING THE DECADE Read More


In my opinion, emergency response is overrated compared to emergency avoidance. Perfection is also overrated, particularly if it keeps y ou from trying things that are interesting. In 2011, I’ll continue to juggle many apparently conflicting goals on behalf of my clients. I want to work in such a way that avoids failure, but when failure comes, make it small, recoverable and learn from it. Looking forward to a Happy and Prosperous 2011!     Read More

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged, price-weighted index of 30 large capitalization stocks with dividends reinvested.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“S&P 500”) is an unmanaged, market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks, with dividends reinvested, and is often used as a proxy for the stock market.

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